Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, alongside China Meteorological Administration guidance, project Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3 at 24-26°C under hazy sunshine and partial cloud cover, reflecting a warming trend from recent March highs near 24°C amid persistent high-pressure subsidence over the Sichuan Basin. This consensus explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 23-27°C outcomes at 24-25%, as traders weigh solar heating potential against inversion-driven haze limiting extremes. The slight edge for 30°C or higher (32.5%) stems from outlier runs showing ridge strengthening and historical early-spring spikes above climatological norms of 21-23°C. New daily model updates and CMA bulletins through April 1 could refine probabilities amid typical 3-5°C short-range spreads.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 3?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 3?
26°C 29%
22°C 24%
27°C 21%
25°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
20°C or below
3%
21°C
14%
22°C
24%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C
20%
26°C
29%
27°C
21%
28°C
19%
29°C
22%
30°C or higher
35%
26°C 29%
22°C 24%
27°C 21%
25°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
20°C or below
$41 Vol.
3%
21°C
$6 Vol.
14%
22°C
$6 Vol.
24%
23°C
$6 Vol.
18%
24°C
$6 Vol.
18%
25°C
$6 Vol.
20%
26°C
$6 Vol.
29%
27°C
$6 Vol.
21%
28°C
$6 Vol.
19%
29°C
$6 Vol.
22%
30°C or higher
$61 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, alongside China Meteorological Administration guidance, project Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3 at 24-26°C under hazy sunshine and partial cloud cover, reflecting a warming trend from recent March highs near 24°C amid persistent high-pressure subsidence over the Sichuan Basin. This consensus explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 23-27°C outcomes at 24-25%, as traders weigh solar heating potential against inversion-driven haze limiting extremes. The slight edge for 30°C or higher (32.5%) stems from outlier runs showing ridge strengthening and historical early-spring spikes above climatological norms of 21-23°C. New daily model updates and CMA bulletins through April 1 could refine probabilities amid typical 3-5°C short-range spreads.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Volume
$157End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, alongside China Meteorological Administration guidance, project Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3 at 24-26°C under hazy sunshine and partial cloud cover, reflecting a warming trend from recent March highs near 24°C amid persistent high-pressure subsidence over the Sichuan Basin. This consensus explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 23-27°C outcomes at 24-25%, as traders weigh solar heating potential against inversion-driven haze limiting extremes. The slight edge for 30°C or higher (32.5%) stems from outlier runs showing ridge strengthening and historical early-spring spikes above climatological norms of 21-23°C. New daily model updates and CMA bulletins through April 1 could refine probabilities amid typical 3-5°C short-range spreads.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$157End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, alongside China Meteorological Administration guidance, project Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3 at 24-26°C under hazy sunshine and partial cloud cover, reflecting a warming trend from recent March highs near 24°C amid persistent high-pressure subsidence over the Sichuan Basin. This consensus explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 23-27°C outcomes at 24-25%, as traders weigh solar heating potential against inversion-driven haze limiting extremes. The slight edge for 30°C or higher (32.5%) stems from outlier runs showing ridge strengthening and historical early-spring spikes above climatological norms of 21-23°C. New daily model updates and CMA bulletins through April 1 could refine probabilities amid typical 3-5°C short-range spreads.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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