Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close clustering around 21°C (33.5% implied probability), 22°C (27%), and 23°C or higher (22%), driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global ensemble models projecting highs near 21-22°C for Tokyo on April 5 amid a mild high-pressure ridge fostering partly sunny conditions and light southerly winds. Recent developments, including a transition from cooler early-April air masses (e.g., April 2 highs near 16°C) to warmer spring norms, have boosted these mid-20s outcomes, while persistent urban heat island effects and variable solar insolation differentiate the tight race—full sun could push toward 23°C+, but encroaching clouds from a nearby low-pressure trough cap it at 21°C. Historical April 5 averages hover at 19°C with a 2-3°C standard deviation; JMA updates expected April 4 morning will clarify model spreads ahead of resolution based on official Tokyo station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 5?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 5?
21°C 36%
22°C 26%
23°C or higher 24%
20°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
4%
19°C
8%
20°C
15%
21°C
36%
22°C
26%
23°C or higher
24%
21°C 36%
22°C 26%
23°C or higher 24%
20°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
13°C or below
$756 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$856 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$714 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$755 Vol.
1%
17°C
$672 Vol.
2%
18°C
$629 Vol.
4%
19°C
$516 Vol.
8%
20°C
$730 Vol.
15%
21°C
$537 Vol.
36%
22°C
$558 Vol.
26%
23°C or higher
$1,077 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close clustering around 21°C (33.5% implied probability), 22°C (27%), and 23°C or higher (22%), driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global ensemble models projecting highs near 21-22°C for Tokyo on April 5 amid a mild high-pressure ridge fostering partly sunny conditions and light southerly winds. Recent developments, including a transition from cooler early-April air masses (e.g., April 2 highs near 16°C) to warmer spring norms, have boosted these mid-20s outcomes, while persistent urban heat island effects and variable solar insolation differentiate the tight race—full sun could push toward 23°C+, but encroaching clouds from a nearby low-pressure trough cap it at 21°C. Historical April 5 averages hover at 19°C with a 2-3°C standard deviation; JMA updates expected April 4 morning will clarify model spreads ahead of resolution based on official Tokyo station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$7,629End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close clustering around 21°C (33.5% implied probability), 22°C (27%), and 23°C or higher (22%), driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global ensemble models projecting highs near 21-22°C for Tokyo on April 5 amid a mild high-pressure ridge fostering partly sunny conditions and light southerly winds. Recent developments, including a transition from cooler early-April air masses (e.g., April 2 highs near 16°C) to warmer spring norms, have boosted these mid-20s outcomes, while persistent urban heat island effects and variable solar insolation differentiate the tight race—full sun could push toward 23°C+, but encroaching clouds from a nearby low-pressure trough cap it at 21°C. Historical April 5 averages hover at 19°C with a 2-3°C standard deviation; JMA updates expected April 4 morning will clarify model spreads ahead of resolution based on official Tokyo station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,629End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close clustering around 21°C (33.5% implied probability), 22°C (27%), and 23°C or higher (22%), driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global ensemble models projecting highs near 21-22°C for Tokyo on April 5 amid a mild high-pressure ridge fostering partly sunny conditions and light southerly winds. Recent developments, including a transition from cooler early-April air masses (e.g., April 2 highs near 16°C) to warmer spring norms, have boosted these mid-20s outcomes, while persistent urban heat island effects and variable solar insolation differentiate the tight race—full sun could push toward 23°C+, but encroaching clouds from a nearby low-pressure trough cap it at 21°C. Historical April 5 averages hover at 19°C with a 2-3°C standard deviation; JMA updates expected April 4 morning will clarify model spreads ahead of resolution based on official Tokyo station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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