The 61% market-implied probability for "No" Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 stems from the historical rarity of such events and the 2024 Atlantic season's failure to produce one despite record activity. NOAA data since 1851 logs about 40 Category 4+ US landfalls, averaging fewer than one every two years, with recent upticks linked to warmer sea surface temperatures but offset by variable steering patterns and wind shear. Storms like Beryl rapidly intensified to Category 5 over the Caribbean yet weakened before US strikes due to dry air and shear; similar dynamics have capped late-season threats. La Niña conditions forecast for winter 2024/25 may boost 2025 activity, but NHC model ensembles show low consensus for major landfalls, with resolution hinging on Saffir-Simpson classifications at continental US boundaries through 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$305,124 Vol.
$305,124 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$305,124 Vol.
$305,124 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 61% market-implied probability for "No" Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 stems from the historical rarity of such events and the 2024 Atlantic season's failure to produce one despite record activity. NOAA data since 1851 logs about 40 Category 4+ US landfalls, averaging fewer than one every two years, with recent upticks linked to warmer sea surface temperatures but offset by variable steering patterns and wind shear. Storms like Beryl rapidly intensified to Category 5 over the Caribbean yet weakened before US strikes due to dry air and shear; similar dynamics have capped late-season threats. La Niña conditions forecast for winter 2024/25 may boost 2025 activity, but NHC model ensembles show low consensus for major landfalls, with resolution hinging on Saffir-Simpson classifications at continental US boundaries through 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$305,124End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 61% market-implied probability for "No" Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 stems from the historical rarity of such events and the 2024 Atlantic season's failure to produce one despite record activity. NOAA data since 1851 logs about 40 Category 4+ US landfalls, averaging fewer than one every two years, with recent upticks linked to warmer sea surface temperatures but offset by variable steering patterns and wind shear. Storms like Beryl rapidly intensified to Category 5 over the Caribbean yet weakened before US strikes due to dry air and shear; similar dynamics have capped late-season threats. La Niña conditions forecast for winter 2024/25 may boost 2025 activity, but NHC model ensembles show low consensus for major landfalls, with resolution hinging on Saffir-Simpson classifications at continental US boundaries through 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$305,124End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 61% market-implied probability for "No" Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 stems from the historical rarity of such events and the 2024 Atlantic season's failure to produce one despite record activity. NOAA data since 1851 logs about 40 Category 4+ US landfalls, averaging fewer than one every two years, with recent upticks linked to warmer sea surface temperatures but offset by variable steering patterns and wind shear. Storms like Beryl rapidly intensified to Category 5 over the Caribbean yet weakened before US strikes due to dry air and shear; similar dynamics have capped late-season threats. La Niña conditions forecast for winter 2024/25 may boost 2025 activity, but NHC model ensembles show low consensus for major landfalls, with resolution hinging on Saffir-Simpson classifications at continental US boundaries through 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions