Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Name: Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Start: 2025-11-20T23:56:12.093Z
End: 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

<4m sq km 37%

4.4-4.6m sq km 22.0%

4.2-4.4m sq km 21.2%

4.0-4.2m sq km 21.0%

NEW

Oct 1, 2026

<4m sq km

$0 Vol.

37%

4.0-4.2m sq km

$1,184 Vol.

21%

4.2-4.4m sq km

$527 Vol.

21%

4.4-4.6m sq km

$573 Vol.

29%

4.6-4.8m sq km

$765 Vol.

14%

4.8-5m sq km

$396 Vol.

14%

5m+ sq km

$0 Vol.

10%

<4m sq km 37%

4.4-4.6m sq km 22.0%

4.2-4.4m sq km 21.2%

4.0-4.2m sq km 21.0%

NEW

Oct 1, 2026

<4m sq km

$0 Vol.

37%

4.0-4.2m sq km

$1,184 Vol.

21%

4.2-4.4m sq km

$527 Vol.

21%

4.4-4.6m sq km

$573 Vol.

29%

4.6-4.8m sq km

$765 Vol.

14%

4.8-5m sq km

$396 Vol.

14%

5m+ sq km

$0 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Trader sentiment for this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, typically mid-September, clusters tightly around 4.0-4.6 million square kilometers, driven by current extent tracking third-lowest on record at about 5.3 million sq km as of early August per NSIDC data, coupled with record-low ice volume from PIOMAS estimates. Leading the pack at 35.5% odds for under 4 million sq km reflects optimism for extreme melt akin to 2012 or 2020, fueled by persistent high-pressure ridges promoting surface melt and reduced ice export, plus elevated ocean heat content. Countering this, 28.7% back 4.4-4.6 million sq km aligning with NOAA and ECMWF ensemble medians around 4.5 million, as potential cold air intrusions or wind shifts could stabilize remaining thin, first-year ice; model spread highlights uncertainty in late-season dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 5:52 PM UTC

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & 14.4m square kilometers?

94%

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

69%

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

41%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<4m sq km" at 37%, followed by "4.4-4.6m sq km" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 20, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" is "<4m sq km" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.4-4.6m sq km" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 37¢ for "<4m sq km" in the "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 37% chance that "<4m sq km" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 37¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 63¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Oct 1, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" market has a growing discussion of 6 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Rules

Market Context

Market Context

Related

Comments (6)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?"?

What are the current odds for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?"?

How will "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?"?

What does a price of 37¢ for "<4m sq km" mean?

When does the "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" market close?

What are traders saying about "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?"?

What is Polymarket?