**Trader consensus at 95.5% on “No” for a new pandemic in 2026 reflects the absence of any novel pathogen with sustained global human-to-human transmission through late September.** Ongoing regional outbreaks, including the Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease PHEIC in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (over 7,400 confirmed cases, ~48% CFR across seven provinces as of mid-September), remain geographically contained despite expansion, with Uganda’s smaller cluster declared over. Broader surveillance shows elevated but non-pandemic activity in measles, chikungunya, West Nile virus, mpox clades, and cholera, without evidence of a new “Disease X” or rapid international spread. Post-COVID enhancements in genomic sequencing, wastewater monitoring, and WHO/CDC reporting reduce the likelihood of undetected emergence. With only three months left in the year, the window for a qualifying new pandemic—typically requiring widespread transmission across multiple regions and formal WHO declaration—has narrowed sharply. Realistic tail risks include rapid mutation or international seeding of current threats (e.g., H5N1 avian influenza spillover or Ebola adaptation), an undetected lab incident, or a novel respiratory virus igniting in the final quarter, though current official data show no such trajectory.