Name: New pandemic in 2026?
Start: 2025-12-01T21:41:18.23909Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

New Pandemic

New pandemic in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

New pandemic in 2025?

On February 21, a bat coronavirus that has the capacity to spread to humans, similar to the one that caused the COVID-19 pandemic, was reportedly discovered (See: https://www.newsweek.com/new-coronavirus-bat-chinese-lab-2034232)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new COVID pandemic other than COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) between February 21, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

On February 21, a bat coronavirus that has the capacity to spread to humans, known as HKU5-CoV-2, was reportedly discovered (See: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-discovers-new-bat-coronavirus-that-poses-risk-of-animal-to-human-transmission/3489013)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against HKU5-CoV-2  receives full FDA approval between February 20, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the FDA, including their official list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states).

Vaccine for new COVID disease in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against H5N1 receives full FDA approval between January 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the FDA, including their official list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states).

Bird flu vaccine in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine has its Biologics License Application (BLA) approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) revoked by the FDA or is voluntarily withdrawn for reasons related to health, safety, or efficacy by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

Withdrawing approval solely due to seasonality, low demand, or an emergency ending will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. Similarly, a reduction in the scope of approved recipients, without fully eliminating the approval will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution."

The resolution source will be official FDA announcements and guidance published on the FDA website (see: https://www.cdc.gov/acip-recs/hcp/vaccine-specific/).

Will RFK end any vaccine approvals by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of unique humans displayed on the official World website exceeds 20,000,000 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the official World website, available at https://world.org/, specifically the “Unique humans” figure shown on the homepage.

This market is based solely on the “Unique humans” figure displayed on the official World website (https://world.org/), not on data from third-party analytics dashboards, or unofficial sources.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source or public data consistent with the official World Network figures.

Over 20M humans verified on World Network by December 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC has completely ended its recommendation for the listed vaccine, meaning it no longer recommends it for any category of individuals by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A reduction in the scope of recommended recipients, or the removal of a recommendation for a specific type of vaccine for the listed disease (e.g. CDC removal of the recommendation for the live oral polio vaccine in 2022) without fully eliminating the recommendation will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be official CDC announcements and guidance published on the CDC website (see: https://www.cdc.gov/acip-recs/hcp/vaccine-specific/).

Will RFK end Hepatitis B vaccine recommendation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Panick in the White House

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Nuclear weapon detonated
- Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize
- Ukraine election called
- US-Russia nuclear deal
- Mass Gaza population relocation
- Ukraine agrees to give up the rest of Donbas

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phantom officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Phantom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Phantom launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) between October 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses will be, have been, or are being acquired by or merged with Paramount Global by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the merger or acquisition is ultimately completed.

Any merger or acquisition will qualify regardless of whether it regards all of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses or only a subset of those businesses (including, for example, HBO / Max, Warner Bros. Pictures, Warner Bros. Television, or related streaming platforms and content libraries).

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Paramount Global and/or Warner Bros. Discovery; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

New pandemic in 2026?

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New pandemic in 2026?

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New pandemic in 2026?

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New pandemic in 2026?

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