Trader consensus centers on a May 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14 °C primarily because ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas accumulation continues to set a high baseline, while ENSO-neutral conditions and near-average sea-surface temperatures limit additional warming from oceanic heat release. Recent satellite and surface-station data through mid-May confirm anomalies tracking close to the upper end of the 2020–2025 May average, with no strong La Niña cooling signal yet emerging. Model ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF show modest spread around this range, reflecting typical intra-seasonal variability rather than a fundamental shift. Updated monthly reports expected later this week could refine the final outcome if early-June observations deviate from current trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 54%
<1.10ºC 22%
1.15–1.19ºC 4%
1.20–1.24ºC 1.9%
$85,510 Vol.
$85,510 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
22%
1.10–1.14ºC
54%
1.15–1.19ºC
4%
1.20–1.24ºC
2%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 54%
<1.10ºC 22%
1.15–1.19ºC 4%
1.20–1.24ºC 1.9%
$85,510 Vol.
$85,510 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$27,816 Vol.
22%
1.10–1.14ºC
$8,596 Vol.
54%
1.15–1.19ºC
$14,739 Vol.
4%
1.20–1.24ºC
$11,552 Vol.
2%
1.25–1.29ºC
$9,978 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$12,830 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus centers on a May 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14 °C primarily because ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas accumulation continues to set a high baseline, while ENSO-neutral conditions and near-average sea-surface temperatures limit additional warming from oceanic heat release. Recent satellite and surface-station data through mid-May confirm anomalies tracking close to the upper end of the 2020–2025 May average, with no strong La Niña cooling signal yet emerging. Model ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF show modest spread around this range, reflecting typical intra-seasonal variability rather than a fundamental shift. Updated monthly reports expected later this week could refine the final outcome if early-June observations deviate from current trends.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$85,510End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus centers on a May 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14 °C primarily because ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas accumulation continues to set a high baseline, while ENSO-neutral conditions and near-average sea-surface temperatures limit additional warming from oceanic heat release. Recent satellite and surface-station data through mid-May confirm anomalies tracking close to the upper end of the 2020–2025 May average, with no strong La Niña cooling signal yet emerging. Model ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF show modest spread around this range, reflecting typical intra-seasonal variability rather than a fundamental shift. Updated monthly reports expected later this week could refine the final outcome if early-June observations deviate from current trends.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$85,510End Date
Jun 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on a May 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14 °C primarily because ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas accumulation continues to set a high baseline, while ENSO-neutral conditions and near-average sea-surface temperatures limit additional warming from oceanic heat release. Recent satellite and surface-station data through mid-May confirm anomalies tracking close to the upper end of the 2020–2025 May average, with no strong La Niña cooling signal yet emerging. Model ensembles from NOAA and ECMWF show modest spread around this range, reflecting typical intra-seasonal variability rather than a fundamental shift. Updated monthly reports expected later this week could refine the final outcome if early-June observations deviate from current trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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