Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of moderate earthquakes driven by ongoing tectonic plate motions along major subduction zones and transform faults. Historical catalogs indicate an average of roughly 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ events per week worldwide, with Poisson variability allowing clusters or quieter intervals, producing strong trader consensus for more than nine during May 18–24. No anomalous foreshock sequences or unusual strain signals altered this baseline. Final catalog confirmation could shift counts marginally if additional smaller events are reclassified, though current observations align closely with climatological expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 18 - May 24?
>9 100.0%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
5 <1%
$136,930 Vol.
$136,930 Vol.
≤3
No
4
No
5
No
6
No
7
No
8
No
9
No
>9
Yes
>9 100.0%
≤3 <1%
4 <1%
5 <1%
$136,930 Vol.
$136,930 Vol.
≤3
No
4
No
5
No
6
No
7
No
8
No
9
No
>9
Yes
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of moderate earthquakes driven by ongoing tectonic plate motions along major subduction zones and transform faults. Historical catalogs indicate an average of roughly 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ events per week worldwide, with Poisson variability allowing clusters or quieter intervals, producing strong trader consensus for more than nine during May 18–24. No anomalous foreshock sequences or unusual strain signals altered this baseline. Final catalog confirmation could shift counts marginally if additional smaller events are reclassified, though current observations align closely with climatological expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions