Low solar activity and limited Earth-directed eruptions have driven the strong market consensus toward zero major space weather events during May 17–23. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center recorded only an isolated M1.4 flare on May 17 and a glancing coronal mass ejection from May 16 that produced active Kp 4 conditions around May 19 without reaching G1 geomagnetic storm thresholds. Far-side active regions and weak sunspot development yielded no significant radio blackouts, solar radiation storms, or strong geomagnetic disturbances meeting G3 or higher criteria. Quiet-to-unsettled conditions persisted through the period, consistent with short-term model forecasts showing low probability of M-class or stronger impacts. Resolution will hinge on final official NOAA verification of any borderline events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many major Space Weather events this week? (May 17 - May 23)
How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 17 - May 23)
0 99.5%
1 1.0%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$3,608 Vol.
$3,608 Vol.
May 23, 2026
0
Yes
1
No
2
No
3
No
4
No
5
No
6+
No
0 99.5%
1 1.0%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$3,608 Vol.
$3,608 Vol.
May 23, 2026
0
$269 Vol.
Yes
1
$65 Vol.
No
2
$1,092 Vol.
No
3
$110 Vol.
No
4
$1,305 Vol.
No
5
$369 Vol.
No
6+
$397 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 17, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 23, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Low solar activity and limited Earth-directed eruptions have driven the strong market consensus toward zero major space weather events during May 17–23. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center recorded only an isolated M1.4 flare on May 17 and a glancing coronal mass ejection from May 16 that produced active Kp 4 conditions around May 19 without reaching G1 geomagnetic storm thresholds. Far-side active regions and weak sunspot development yielded no significant radio blackouts, solar radiation storms, or strong geomagnetic disturbances meeting G3 or higher criteria. Quiet-to-unsettled conditions persisted through the period, consistent with short-term model forecasts showing low probability of M-class or stronger impacts. Resolution will hinge on final official NOAA verification of any borderline events.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 17, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 23, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volume
$3,608End Date
May 23, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 17, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 23, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Low solar activity and limited Earth-directed eruptions have driven the strong market consensus toward zero major space weather events during May 17–23. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center recorded only an isolated M1.4 flare on May 17 and a glancing coronal mass ejection from May 16 that produced active Kp 4 conditions around May 19 without reaching G1 geomagnetic storm thresholds. Far-side active regions and weak sunspot development yielded no significant radio blackouts, solar radiation storms, or strong geomagnetic disturbances meeting G3 or higher criteria. Quiet-to-unsettled conditions persisted through the period, consistent with short-term model forecasts showing low probability of M-class or stronger impacts. Resolution will hinge on final official NOAA verification of any borderline events.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 17, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 23, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$3,608End Date
May 23, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Low solar activity and limited Earth-directed eruptions have driven the strong market consensus toward zero major space weather events during May 17–23. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center recorded only an isolated M1.4 flare on May 17 and a glancing coronal mass ejection from May 16 that produced active Kp 4 conditions around May 19 without reaching G1 geomagnetic storm thresholds. Far-side active regions and weak sunspot development yielded no significant radio blackouts, solar radiation storms, or strong geomagnetic disturbances meeting G3 or higher criteria. Quiet-to-unsettled conditions persisted through the period, consistent with short-term model forecasts showing low probability of M-class or stronger impacts. Resolution will hinge on final official NOAA verification of any borderline events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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