NASA’s February 2026 decision to redesignate Artemis III as a low-Earth orbit demonstration mission rather than a lunar landing has anchored trader consensus against any crewed moon landing this year. The revised schedule positions Artemis III for no earlier than mid-2027 to test Orion rendezvous and docking with prototype Human Landing Systems from SpaceX and Blue Origin, while Artemis IV targets the first crewed lunar surface mission in early 2028. Ongoing SLS stacking, Orion integration, and lander development milestones reflect steady hardware progress but also persistent technical and schedule risks that have already shifted timelines. With no credible alternative programs from other nations or commercial entities positioned for a 2026 landing, the 98.6% “No” probability captures the clear absence of near-term flight opportunities.