NASA’s February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program, which redesignated Artemis III as a late-2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of Orion docking with prototype Human Landing Systems rather than a lunar landing, drives the 98.5% market-implied odds against a crewed Moon landing this year. Artemis II’s April 2026 flyby validated core SLS-Orion systems, yet ongoing delays in SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon lander development—stemming from cryogenic propulsion, refueling, and test setbacks—have pushed the first surface mission to Artemis IV in 2028. With only months remaining in 2026 and no alternative crewed programs positioned for a landing, traders see near-certain consensus. Extreme accelerations in commercial lander timelines or unforeseen regulatory shifts remain theoretically possible but face insurmountable technical and schedule barriers this year.