NASA’s restructured Artemis timeline drives the near-certain trader consensus against a 2026 crewed lunar landing, with the first surface mission now targeted for Artemis IV in 2028 following a 2027 low-Earth-orbit rehearsal of Orion docking with commercial landers. Artemis II’s successful April 2026 crewed lunar flyby confirmed vehicle performance without attempting descent, while SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin HLS vehicles continue facing technical and schedule hurdles that pushed landings outward. Ongoing SLS booster stacking and Orion integration at Kennedy Space Center support 2027 goals, not 2026. Although an unforeseen acceleration in private development or regulatory fast-tracking could theoretically compress timelines, the absence of qualified landers and the compressed remaining calendar make such shifts highly improbable.