NASA's Artemis program timeline drives the 98.6% market-implied odds against a 2026 human moon landing. Artemis II completed a crewed lunar flyby in April 2026 without landing capability, while Artemis III was restructured in February 2026 as a 2027 low-Earth orbit docking test with SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon Human Landing Systems still under development. Both commercial landers face documented schedule slips and technical hurdles per NASA OIG reporting, pushing the first crewed surface mission to Artemis IV targeted for 2028. With October 2026 underway and no alternative programs positioned for a landing this year, trader consensus reflects the absence of demonstrated hardware or launch manifests capable of meeting the deadline.