NASA’s Artemis program architecture, updated in February 2026, confines 2026 activities to the completed Artemis II crewed lunar flyby while shifting the first Human Landing System demonstration to a 2027 low-Earth orbit test mission and targeting the initial crewed surface touchdown for Artemis IV in early 2028. Persistent technical hurdles with SpaceX Starship HLS and Blue Origin Blue Moon variants—including cryogenic propulsion, in-space refueling, and docking interfaces—plus documented schedule slips and a May 2026 Blue Origin test incident, reinforce the absence of any credible pathway for a 2026 landing. With only months remaining and no alternative programs positioned for crewed touchdown, traders assign near-certain probability to “No,” though unforeseen private-sector acceleration or major regulatory shifts could theoretically alter longer-term trajectories.