NASA’s Artemis program schedule revisions have driven the near-certain trader consensus against a crewed lunar landing in 2026. The agency shifted Artemis III to a 2027 low-Earth orbit demonstration of Orion docking with commercial Human Landing Systems from SpaceX and Blue Origin, moving the first surface mission to Artemis IV in 2028. Persistent delays in Starship and Blue Moon development, including propellant transfer tests, a May 2026 New Glenn explosion, and spacesuit certification setbacks, eliminated any realistic 2026 window. With Artemis II completed in April and no other crewed vehicles prepared for lunar descent this year, market-implied odds reflect verified technical and programmatic realities rather than speculation.