Trader consensus against a human Moon landing in 2026 stems primarily from NASA's February 2026 Artemis program overhaul, which repositioned the first crewed lunar landing for Artemis IV in 2028 after shifting Artemis III to a 2027 low-Earth orbit docking demonstration with commercial Human Landing Systems. Artemis II's successful April 2026 crewed lunar flyby validated Orion and SLS hardware but left critical HLS elements—SpaceX Starship variants and Blue Origin's Blue Moon—facing ongoing propellant transfer, docking, and schedule delays per inspector general reports. With only months remaining in 2026 and no parallel landing architecture advancing, the 98.5% "No" probability reflects verified timelines rather than speculation, though unexpected regulatory approvals or accelerated private-sector breakthroughs could theoretically compress schedules.