NASA's February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program, shifting the first crewed lunar landing from Artemis III to Artemis IV in 2028, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against a 2026 human moon landing. Persistent technical hurdles—including SpaceX Starship Human Landing System propellant transfer demonstrations and uncrewed test timelines now targeted for 2027, alongside Space Launch System helium system repairs delaying Artemis II—have pushed all landing milestones beyond this year. Recent Starship ground tests and NASA statements confirm no viable 2026 pathway, though last-minute acceleration in lander certification or regulatory approvals could theoretically alter trajectories, albeit with low probability given demonstrated development paces.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВысадка человека на Луну в 2026 году?
Высадка человека на Луну в 2026 году?
Да
$1,932,498 Объем
$1,932,498 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$1,932,498 Объем
$1,932,498 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program, shifting the first crewed lunar landing from Artemis III to Artemis IV in 2028, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against a 2026 human moon landing. Persistent technical hurdles—including SpaceX Starship Human Landing System propellant transfer demonstrations and uncrewed test timelines now targeted for 2027, alongside Space Launch System helium system repairs delaying Artemis II—have pushed all landing milestones beyond this year. Recent Starship ground tests and NASA statements confirm no viable 2026 pathway, though last-minute acceleration in lander certification or regulatory approvals could theoretically alter trajectories, albeit with low probability given demonstrated development paces.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Объем
$1,932,498Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program, shifting the first crewed lunar landing from Artemis III to Artemis IV in 2028, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against a 2026 human moon landing. Persistent technical hurdles—including SpaceX Starship Human Landing System propellant transfer demonstrations and uncrewed test timelines now targeted for 2027, alongside Space Launch System helium system repairs delaying Artemis II—have pushed all landing milestones beyond this year. Recent Starship ground tests and NASA statements confirm no viable 2026 pathway, though last-minute acceleration in lander certification or regulatory approvals could theoretically alter trajectories, albeit with low probability given demonstrated development paces.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,932,498Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program, shifting the first crewed lunar landing from Artemis III to Artemis IV in 2028, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against a 2026 human moon landing. Persistent technical hurdles—including SpaceX Starship Human Landing System propellant transfer demonstrations and uncrewed test timelines now targeted for 2027, alongside Space Launch System helium system repairs delaying Artemis II—have pushed all landing milestones beyond this year. Recent Starship ground tests and NASA statements confirm no viable 2026 pathway, though last-minute acceleration in lander certification or regulatory approvals could theoretically alter trajectories, albeit with low probability given demonstrated development paces.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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