Persistent quiet atmospheric conditions across the central and eastern U.S. produced far below-average tornado activity throughout May 2026, with Storm Prediction Center preliminary counts and confirmed reports totaling roughly 119–166 versus the 1991–2020 climatological mean of 265–275. The absence of major outbreaks, limited favorable shear and instability setups, and rapid progression of stable air masses suppressed formation, driving the market’s 98.7% implied probability for fewer than 200 tornadoes. Historical analogs show May typically accounts for the annual peak; the observed deficit aligns with official National Weather Service tallies and leaves little realistic pathway for upward revisions to breach higher bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
<200 98.6%
200–229 <1%
230–259 <1%
260–289 <1%
$9,573 Vol.
$9,573 Vol.
Jun 8, 2026
<200
99%
200–229
1%
230–259
<1%
260–289
<1%
290–319
<1%
320–349
<1%
350–379
<1%
380–410
<1%
410+
<1%
<200 98.6%
200–229 <1%
230–259 <1%
260–289 <1%
$9,573 Vol.
$9,573 Vol.
Jun 8, 2026
<200
$1,975 Vol.
99%
200–229
$916 Vol.
1%
230–259
$808 Vol.
<1%
260–289
$630 Vol.
<1%
290–319
$1,199 Vol.
<1%
320–349
$1,169 Vol.
<1%
350–379
$719 Vol.
<1%
380–410
$834 Vol.
<1%
410+
$1,324 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Persistent quiet atmospheric conditions across the central and eastern U.S. produced far below-average tornado activity throughout May 2026, with Storm Prediction Center preliminary counts and confirmed reports totaling roughly 119–166 versus the 1991–2020 climatological mean of 265–275. The absence of major outbreaks, limited favorable shear and instability setups, and rapid progression of stable air masses suppressed formation, driving the market’s 98.7% implied probability for fewer than 200 tornadoes. Historical analogs show May typically accounts for the annual peak; the observed deficit aligns with official National Weather Service tallies and leaves little realistic pathway for upward revisions to breach higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$9,573End Date
Jun 8, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Persistent quiet atmospheric conditions across the central and eastern U.S. produced far below-average tornado activity throughout May 2026, with Storm Prediction Center preliminary counts and confirmed reports totaling roughly 119–166 versus the 1991–2020 climatological mean of 265–275. The absence of major outbreaks, limited favorable shear and instability setups, and rapid progression of stable air masses suppressed formation, driving the market’s 98.7% implied probability for fewer than 200 tornadoes. Historical analogs show May typically accounts for the annual peak; the observed deficit aligns with official National Weather Service tallies and leaves little realistic pathway for upward revisions to breach higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$9,573End Date
Jun 8, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent quiet atmospheric conditions across the central and eastern U.S. produced far below-average tornado activity throughout May 2026, with Storm Prediction Center preliminary counts and confirmed reports totaling roughly 119–166 versus the 1991–2020 climatological mean of 265–275. The absence of major outbreaks, limited favorable shear and instability setups, and rapid progression of stable air masses suppressed formation, driving the market’s 98.7% implied probability for fewer than 200 tornadoes. Historical analogs show May typically accounts for the annual peak; the observed deficit aligns with official National Weather Service tallies and leaves little realistic pathway for upward revisions to breach higher bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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