Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 29% implied probability, propelled by an active early season culminating in 202 preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports through March—surpassing recent March year-to-date averages like 2024's 56—fueled by deadly outbreaks such as the March 5–7 event featuring the first EF5 tornado since 2013. Neutral ENSO conditions favored through April–June (80% NOAA probability) underpin expectations of near-climatological totals around 1200, per long-range outlooks, though a potential El Niño transition could dampen late-season activity. The fragmented probabilities highlight uncertainty in peak months ahead, hinging on convective available potential energy (CAPE), wind shear for supercells, and Gulf moisture influx; upcoming SPC Day 3–7 outlooks and NOAA's April report will sharpen trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 29%
1050–1099 16%
<950 12%
1000–1049 8%
$57,235 Vol.
$57,235 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
12%
950–999
1%
1000–1049
8%
1050–1099
16%
1100–1149
7%
1150–1199
6%
1200–1249
1%
1250+
29%
1250+ 29%
1050–1099 16%
<950 12%
1000–1049 8%
$57,235 Vol.
$57,235 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$21,004 Vol.
12%
950–999
$2,040 Vol.
1%
1000–1049
$963 Vol.
8%
1050–1099
$3,717 Vol.
16%
1100–1149
$817 Vol.
7%
1150–1199
$1,095 Vol.
6%
1200–1249
$14,423 Vol.
1%
1250+
$13,175 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 29% implied probability, propelled by an active early season culminating in 202 preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports through March—surpassing recent March year-to-date averages like 2024's 56—fueled by deadly outbreaks such as the March 5–7 event featuring the first EF5 tornado since 2013. Neutral ENSO conditions favored through April–June (80% NOAA probability) underpin expectations of near-climatological totals around 1200, per long-range outlooks, though a potential El Niño transition could dampen late-season activity. The fragmented probabilities highlight uncertainty in peak months ahead, hinging on convective available potential energy (CAPE), wind shear for supercells, and Gulf moisture influx; upcoming SPC Day 3–7 outlooks and NOAA's April report will sharpen trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$57,235End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 29% implied probability, propelled by an active early season culminating in 202 preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports through March—surpassing recent March year-to-date averages like 2024's 56—fueled by deadly outbreaks such as the March 5–7 event featuring the first EF5 tornado since 2013. Neutral ENSO conditions favored through April–June (80% NOAA probability) underpin expectations of near-climatological totals around 1200, per long-range outlooks, though a potential El Niño transition could dampen late-season activity. The fragmented probabilities highlight uncertainty in peak months ahead, hinging on convective available potential energy (CAPE), wind shear for supercells, and Gulf moisture influx; upcoming SPC Day 3–7 outlooks and NOAA's April report will sharpen trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$57,235End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 29% implied probability, propelled by an active early season culminating in 202 preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports through March—surpassing recent March year-to-date averages like 2024's 56—fueled by deadly outbreaks such as the March 5–7 event featuring the first EF5 tornado since 2013. Neutral ENSO conditions favored through April–June (80% NOAA probability) underpin expectations of near-climatological totals around 1200, per long-range outlooks, though a potential El Niño transition could dampen late-season activity. The fragmented probabilities highlight uncertainty in peak months ahead, hinging on convective available potential energy (CAPE), wind shear for supercells, and Gulf moisture influx; upcoming SPC Day 3–7 outlooks and NOAA's April report will sharpen trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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