Trader consensus on the number of magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 clusters tightly around 11–13 (30.5% implied probability) and 14–16 (27%), mirroring the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) long-term global average of about 16 such events annually, driven by steady plate tectonic strain release at subduction zones and transform faults. Recent years underscore this variability—19 in 2023, 17 preliminary for 2024, 11 in 2022—modeled via Poisson statistics where counts fluctuate naturally without predictable trends. No seismic anomalies or major aftershock sequences in the past 30 days have altered baselines; USGS real-time catalogs will track 2026 activity against historical norms, with lower bins like <5 (0.4%) reflecting rarity of prolonged quiescence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
11–13 31%
14–16 27%
8–10 20%
17–19 15%
$1,087,997 Vol.
$1,087,997 Vol.
<5
<1%
5–7
3%
8–10
20%
11–13
31%
14–16
27%
17–19
15%
20+
7%
11–13 31%
14–16 27%
8–10 20%
17–19 15%
$1,087,997 Vol.
$1,087,997 Vol.
<5
<1%
5–7
3%
8–10
20%
11–13
31%
14–16
27%
17–19
15%
20+
7%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the number of magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 clusters tightly around 11–13 (30.5% implied probability) and 14–16 (27%), mirroring the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) long-term global average of about 16 such events annually, driven by steady plate tectonic strain release at subduction zones and transform faults. Recent years underscore this variability—19 in 2023, 17 preliminary for 2024, 11 in 2022—modeled via Poisson statistics where counts fluctuate naturally without predictable trends. No seismic anomalies or major aftershock sequences in the past 30 days have altered baselines; USGS real-time catalogs will track 2026 activity against historical norms, with lower bins like <5 (0.4%) reflecting rarity of prolonged quiescence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions