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Climate & Science·Weather

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Market icon
Climate & Science·Weather

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

11–13 31%

14–16 25%

8–10 21%

17–19 15%

Polymarket

$1,089,118 Vol.

11–13 31%

14–16 25%

8–10 21%

17–19 15%

Polymarket

$1,089,118 Vol.

<5

$160,765 Vol.

<1%

5–7

$62,879 Vol.

3%

8–10

$117,422 Vol.

21%

11–13

$376,948 Vol.

31%

14–16

$126,535 Vol.

25%

17–19

$194,813 Vol.

15%

20+

$49,758 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With only two magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded by USGS in 2026 so far—a deep M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22 and M7.5 west of Tonga on March 24—traders price a below-average year, implying 11–13 events (30.5%) narrowly ahead of 14–16 (25%). This slow first-quarter pace trails the long-term global average of 15–16 major quakes annually along plate boundaries, yet seismic activity follows a Poisson distribution with high year-to-year variability, including potential clustering in subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. No unusual precursors or heightened monitoring alerts from USGS differentiate outcomes; continuous real-time catalogs will refine trader consensus as the year progresses.

With only two magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded by USGS in 2026 so far—a deep M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22 and M7.5 west of Tonga on March 24—traders price a below-average year, implying 11–13 events (30.5%) narrowly ahead of 14–16 (25%). This slow first-quarter pace trails the long-term global average of 15–16 major quakes annually along plate boundaries, yet seismic activity follows a Poisson distribution with high year-to-year variability, including potential clustering in subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. No unusual precursors or heightened monitoring alerts from USGS differentiate outcomes; continuous real-time catalogs will refine trader consensus as the year progresses.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With only two magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded by USGS in 2026 so far—a deep M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22 and M7.5 west of Tonga on March 24—traders price a below-average year, implying 11–13 events (30.5%) narrowly ahead of 14–16 (25%). This slow first-quarter pace trails the long-term global average of 15–16 major quakes annually along plate boundaries, yet seismic activity follows a Poisson distribution with high year-to-year variability, including potential clustering in subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. No unusual precursors or heightened monitoring alerts from USGS differentiate outcomes; continuous real-time catalogs will refine trader consensus as the year progresses.

With only two magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded by USGS in 2026 so far—a deep M7.0 offshore Sabah, Malaysia on February 22 and M7.5 west of Tonga on March 24—traders price a below-average year, implying 11–13 events (30.5%) narrowly ahead of 14–16 (25%). This slow first-quarter pace trails the long-term global average of 15–16 major quakes annually along plate boundaries, yet seismic activity follows a Poisson distribution with high year-to-year variability, including potential clustering in subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. No unusual precursors or heightened monitoring alerts from USGS differentiate outcomes; continuous real-time catalogs will refine trader consensus as the year progresses.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

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10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

6%
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9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

14%
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Natural Disaster in 2026?

30%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "11–13" at 31%, followed by "14–16" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" is "11–13" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "14–16" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.