Market icon

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?

Market icon

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?

Mar 27

Apr 3

Mar 27

Apr 3

90–95 39%

95+ 33%

<75 19.1%

85–90 4.0%

Polymarket
NEW

90–95 39%

95+ 33%

<75 19.1%

85–90 4.0%

Polymarket
NEW

<75

$140 Vol.

19%

75–80

$104 Vol.

2%

80–85

$287 Vol.

52%

85–90

$128 Vol.

4%

90–95

$2,978 Vol.

21%

95+

$105 Vol.

33%

This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Traders assign a 48.5% implied probability to a cumulative flu hospitalization rate of 80–85 per 100,000 population by week 12 (late March) 2026, reflecting consensus on a moderate influenza season amid historical baselines and early 2024–25 surveillance data from the CDC. Current season activity remains low, with cumulative rates at just 1.4 per 100,000 as of early November per latest FluView reports, dominated by A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 strains showing reasonable vaccine match (estimated 42% effectiveness). This tempers expectations below severe seasons' peaks (often 120+ per 100k by week 12), while waning population immunity and potential viral evolution keep upside risk for 90–95 (20.5%) or higher. Key upcoming CDC weekly updates through winter will refine epidemiological trajectories and transmission dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$3,687
End Date
Apr 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Traders assign a 48.5% implied probability to a cumulative flu hospitalization rate of 80–85 per 100,000 population by week 12 (late March) 2026, reflecting consensus on a moderate influenza season amid historical baselines and early 2024–25 surveillance data from the CDC. Current season activity remains low, with cumulative rates at just 1.4 per 100,000 as of early November per latest FluView reports, dominated by A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 strains showing reasonable vaccine match (estimated 42% effectiveness). This tempers expectations below severe seasons' peaks (often 120+ per 100k by week 12), while waning population immunity and potential viral evolution keep upside risk for 90–95 (20.5%) or higher. Key upcoming CDC weekly updates through winter will refine epidemiological trajectories and transmission dynamics.

Traders assign a 48.5% implied probability to a cumulative flu hospitalization rate of 80–85 per 100,000 population by week 12 (late March) 2026, reflecting consensus on a moderate influenza season amid historical baselines and early 2024–25 surveillance data from the CDC. Current season activity remains low, with cumulative rates at just 1.4 per 100,000 as of early November per latest FluView reports, dominated by A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 strains showing reasonable vaccine match (estimated 42% effectiveness). This tempers expectations below severe seasons' peaks (often 120+ per 100k by week 12), while waning population immunity and potential viral evolution keep upside risk for 90–95 (20.5%) or higher. Key upcoming CDC weekly updates through winter will refine epidemiological trajectories and transmission dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

98%
Market icon

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

62%
Market icon

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

13%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "80–85" at 52%, followed by "95+" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?" is "80–85" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "95+" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.