Preliminary NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data places April 2026's anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline, driving trader consensus to 94.6% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome on Polymarket, as this aligns precisely with the market's NASA GISTEMP resolution source. This positioning reflects sustained elevated sea surface temperatures—the second-warmest April on record per Copernicus Marine Service—amid a neutral ENSO transition following the prior El Niño, corroborated by ERA5 reanalysis showing equivalent ~1.43°C above pre-industrial levels when baseline-adjusted. Historical precedents confirm typical monthly revisions of ±0.02–0.05°C; upward shifts from refined station or ocean observations could nudge it toward 1.20–1.24ºC, while significant cooling below 1.15ºC remains improbable absent La Niña emergence. Final data expected mid-May.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 94.9%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.0%
1.10–1.14ºC 2.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$328,949 Vol.
$328,949 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC
95%
1.20–1.24ºC
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC 94.9%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.0%
1.10–1.14ºC 2.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
$328,949 Vol.
$328,949 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$54,723 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$61,134 Vol.
2%
1.15–1.19ºC
$46,716 Vol.
95%
1.20–1.24ºC
$66,529 Vol.
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
$57,041 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$42,816 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data places April 2026's anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline, driving trader consensus to 94.6% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome on Polymarket, as this aligns precisely with the market's NASA GISTEMP resolution source. This positioning reflects sustained elevated sea surface temperatures—the second-warmest April on record per Copernicus Marine Service—amid a neutral ENSO transition following the prior El Niño, corroborated by ERA5 reanalysis showing equivalent ~1.43°C above pre-industrial levels when baseline-adjusted. Historical precedents confirm typical monthly revisions of ±0.02–0.05°C; upward shifts from refined station or ocean observations could nudge it toward 1.20–1.24ºC, while significant cooling below 1.15ºC remains improbable absent La Niña emergence. Final data expected mid-May.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$328,949End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data places April 2026's anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline, driving trader consensus to 94.6% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome on Polymarket, as this aligns precisely with the market's NASA GISTEMP resolution source. This positioning reflects sustained elevated sea surface temperatures—the second-warmest April on record per Copernicus Marine Service—amid a neutral ENSO transition following the prior El Niño, corroborated by ERA5 reanalysis showing equivalent ~1.43°C above pre-industrial levels when baseline-adjusted. Historical precedents confirm typical monthly revisions of ±0.02–0.05°C; upward shifts from refined station or ocean observations could nudge it toward 1.20–1.24ºC, while significant cooling below 1.15ºC remains improbable absent La Niña emergence. Final data expected mid-May.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$328,949End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data places April 2026's anomaly at approximately 1.17°C above the 1901-2000 baseline, driving trader consensus to 94.6% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome on Polymarket, as this aligns precisely with the market's NASA GISTEMP resolution source. This positioning reflects sustained elevated sea surface temperatures—the second-warmest April on record per Copernicus Marine Service—amid a neutral ENSO transition following the prior El Niño, corroborated by ERA5 reanalysis showing equivalent ~1.43°C above pre-industrial levels when baseline-adjusted. Historical precedents confirm typical monthly revisions of ±0.02–0.05°C; upward shifts from refined station or ocean observations could nudge it toward 1.20–1.24ºC, while significant cooling below 1.15ºC remains improbable absent La Niña emergence. Final data expected mid-May.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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