Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a March 28 high temperature in Chongqing of 19°C at 24.5% implied probability, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 19°C under mild subtropical spring conditions with southerly winds advecting warmer air. Recent observations from China Meteorological Administration stations show diurnal highs climbing from 16-17°C mid-week, tempered by lingering soil moisture from prior rains that could cap peaks at 18°C in cloudier scenarios (19% odds), while clearer afternoon skies favor 20°C (19%). Urban heat island amplification in Chongqing's basin adds 1-2°C above rural baselines, differentiating outcomes amid model spread; historical late-March averages sit at 17°C, underscoring the tight race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chongqing on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 28?
19°C 24%
20°C 19%
21°C 17%
17°C 14%
14°C or below
3%
15°C
4%
16°C
7%
17°C
13%
18°C
18%
19°C
24%
20°C
19%
21°C
17%
22°C
10%
23°C
10%
24°C or higher
4%
19°C 24%
20°C 19%
21°C 17%
17°C 14%
14°C or below
3%
15°C
4%
16°C
7%
17°C
13%
18°C
18%
19°C
24%
20°C
19%
21°C
17%
22°C
10%
23°C
10%
24°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a March 28 high temperature in Chongqing of 19°C at 24.5% implied probability, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 19°C under mild subtropical spring conditions with southerly winds advecting warmer air. Recent observations from China Meteorological Administration stations show diurnal highs climbing from 16-17°C mid-week, tempered by lingering soil moisture from prior rains that could cap peaks at 18°C in cloudier scenarios (19% odds), while clearer afternoon skies favor 20°C (19%). Urban heat island amplification in Chongqing's basin adds 1-2°C above rural baselines, differentiating outcomes amid model spread; historical late-March averages sit at 17°C, underscoring the tight race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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