Trader sentiment clusters around 66-74°F highs for San Francisco on March 28, driven by NOAA and ECMWF forecast ensembles showing a 67-72°F consensus amid model spread from persistent marine layer versus emerging offshore high pressure. The 66-67°F lead (22%) reflects baseline March climatology—average high 62°F, with fog delaying peak heating—bolstered by cool 55-65°F outliers at 17-22% from GFS cool biases and recent onshore winds. Warmer 72°F+ bets (37% combined) hinge on ridge amplification clearing stratus for adiabatic warming, per latest 12z runs; diurnal max typically hits 2-4 PM at SFO, with <1°F resolution margin underscoring microclimate uncertainty from bay breezes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on March 28?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 28?
66-67°F 22%
68-69°F 20%
64-65°F 19%
72-73°F 19%
55°F or below
10%
56-57°F
17%
58-59°F
17%
60-61°F
17%
62-63°F
16%
64-65°F
19%
66-67°F
22%
68-69°F
20%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
19%
74°F or higher
19%
66-67°F 22%
68-69°F 20%
64-65°F 19%
72-73°F 19%
55°F or below
10%
56-57°F
17%
58-59°F
17%
60-61°F
17%
62-63°F
16%
64-65°F
19%
66-67°F
22%
68-69°F
20%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
19%
74°F or higher
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:10 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters around 66-74°F highs for San Francisco on March 28, driven by NOAA and ECMWF forecast ensembles showing a 67-72°F consensus amid model spread from persistent marine layer versus emerging offshore high pressure. The 66-67°F lead (22%) reflects baseline March climatology—average high 62°F, with fog delaying peak heating—bolstered by cool 55-65°F outliers at 17-22% from GFS cool biases and recent onshore winds. Warmer 72°F+ bets (37% combined) hinge on ridge amplification clearing stratus for adiabatic warming, per latest 12z runs; diurnal max typically hits 2-4 PM at SFO, with <1°F resolution margin underscoring microclimate uncertainty from bay breezes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions