Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive the 46% implied probability for Dallas reaching 68°F or higher on March 28, projecting highs of 70-74°F amid a building high-pressure ridge over Texas and southerly winds advecting warmer Gulf moisture. Recent model runs updated March 26 show a slight warming trend from earlier cooler outlooks, boosting trader confidence in the upper range while tempering bets on 66-67°F (16.5%) as a conservative fallback. Historical March data averages 68°F highs, but current upper-air patterns favor above-normal temps, with low odds below 60°F reflecting minimal cold front risks per NWS Dallas-Fort Worth guidance. Uncertainty lingers in boundary layer mixing, but market odds align closely with verified 12-24 hour projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on March 28?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 28?
68°F or higher 52%
66-67°F 20%
64-65°F 13%
62-63°F 8%
49°F or below
1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
2%
58-59°F
6%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
17%
68°F or higher
50%
68°F or higher 52%
66-67°F 20%
64-65°F 13%
62-63°F 8%
49°F or below
1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
2%
58-59°F
6%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
17%
68°F or higher
50%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive the 46% implied probability for Dallas reaching 68°F or higher on March 28, projecting highs of 70-74°F amid a building high-pressure ridge over Texas and southerly winds advecting warmer Gulf moisture. Recent model runs updated March 26 show a slight warming trend from earlier cooler outlooks, boosting trader confidence in the upper range while tempering bets on 66-67°F (16.5%) as a conservative fallback. Historical March data averages 68°F highs, but current upper-air patterns favor above-normal temps, with low odds below 60°F reflecting minimal cold front risks per NWS Dallas-Fort Worth guidance. Uncertainty lingers in boundary layer mixing, but market odds align closely with verified 12-24 hour projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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