Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake occurring worldwide between May 18 and May 24, aligning with the United States Geological Survey’s long-term global average of one to two such events per week amid roughly 120–150 magnitude 6–6.9 quakes annually. Seismic monitoring through mid-week showed no confirmed events in the period, keeping activity at typical background levels without notable foreshock sequences or strain signals along major subduction zones and transform faults. Poisson variability in occurrence allows for zero-event weeks or occasional clusters, but current conditions reflect standard tectonic rates rather than elevated risk. Final USGS catalog updates could still shift the count if a late event registers near the 6.5 threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 18 - May 24?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 18 - May 24?
1 100.0%
0 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$48,718 Vol.
$48,718 Vol.
May 24, 2026
0
No
1
Yes
2
No
3
No
4
No
5
No
>5
No
1 100.0%
0 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$48,718 Vol.
$48,718 Vol.
May 24, 2026
0
$19,683 Vol.
No
1
$10,747 Vol.
Yes
2
$5,158 Vol.
No
3
$5,115 Vol.
No
4
$2,870 Vol.
No
5
$2,808 Vol.
No
>5
$2,338 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake occurring worldwide between May 18 and May 24, aligning with the United States Geological Survey’s long-term global average of one to two such events per week amid roughly 120–150 magnitude 6–6.9 quakes annually. Seismic monitoring through mid-week showed no confirmed events in the period, keeping activity at typical background levels without notable foreshock sequences or strain signals along major subduction zones and transform faults. Poisson variability in occurrence allows for zero-event weeks or occasional clusters, but current conditions reflect standard tectonic rates rather than elevated risk. Final USGS catalog updates could still shift the count if a late event registers near the 6.5 threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volume
$48,718End Date
May 24, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake occurring worldwide between May 18 and May 24, aligning with the United States Geological Survey’s long-term global average of one to two such events per week amid roughly 120–150 magnitude 6–6.9 quakes annually. Seismic monitoring through mid-week showed no confirmed events in the period, keeping activity at typical background levels without notable foreshock sequences or strain signals along major subduction zones and transform faults. Poisson variability in occurrence allows for zero-event weeks or occasional clusters, but current conditions reflect standard tectonic rates rather than elevated risk. Final USGS catalog updates could still shift the count if a late event registers near the 6.5 threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$48,718End Date
May 24, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake occurring worldwide between May 18 and May 24, aligning with the United States Geological Survey’s long-term global average of one to two such events per week amid roughly 120–150 magnitude 6–6.9 quakes annually. Seismic monitoring through mid-week showed no confirmed events in the period, keeping activity at typical background levels without notable foreshock sequences or strain signals along major subduction zones and transform faults. Poisson variability in occurrence allows for zero-event weeks or occasional clusters, but current conditions reflect standard tectonic rates rather than elevated risk. Final USGS catalog updates could still shift the count if a late event registers near the 6.5 threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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