Trader consensus places the implied probability of an Ebola pandemic in 2026 at just 7.5% for “Yes,” driven by the ongoing but geographically limited Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in remote northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and adjacent Uganda. As of early June 2026, official counts stand at roughly 378 confirmed cases and 63 deaths across both countries, with no confirmed exportations outside the region and negligible risk to the United States or other distant populations according to CDC assessments. Direct-contact transmission, rapid international containment measures following the May PHEIC declaration, and the absence of airborne spread have kept the event from meeting pandemic criteria. While model projections note potential for several thousand additional cases if response weakens, sustained surveillance, contact tracing, and historical patterns of prior DRC outbreaks support the strong market view that global escalation remains unlikely through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
$441,146 Vol.
$441,146 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$441,146 Vol.
$441,146 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus places the implied probability of an Ebola pandemic in 2026 at just 7.5% for “Yes,” driven by the ongoing but geographically limited Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in remote northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and adjacent Uganda. As of early June 2026, official counts stand at roughly 378 confirmed cases and 63 deaths across both countries, with no confirmed exportations outside the region and negligible risk to the United States or other distant populations according to CDC assessments. Direct-contact transmission, rapid international containment measures following the May PHEIC declaration, and the absence of airborne spread have kept the event from meeting pandemic criteria. While model projections note potential for several thousand additional cases if response weakens, sustained surveillance, contact tracing, and historical patterns of prior DRC outbreaks support the strong market view that global escalation remains unlikely through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$441,146End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus places the implied probability of an Ebola pandemic in 2026 at just 7.5% for “Yes,” driven by the ongoing but geographically limited Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in remote northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and adjacent Uganda. As of early June 2026, official counts stand at roughly 378 confirmed cases and 63 deaths across both countries, with no confirmed exportations outside the region and negligible risk to the United States or other distant populations according to CDC assessments. Direct-contact transmission, rapid international containment measures following the May PHEIC declaration, and the absence of airborne spread have kept the event from meeting pandemic criteria. While model projections note potential for several thousand additional cases if response weakens, sustained surveillance, contact tracing, and historical patterns of prior DRC outbreaks support the strong market view that global escalation remains unlikely through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$441,146End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus places the implied probability of an Ebola pandemic in 2026 at just 7.5% for “Yes,” driven by the ongoing but geographically limited Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in remote northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and adjacent Uganda. As of early June 2026, official counts stand at roughly 378 confirmed cases and 63 deaths across both countries, with no confirmed exportations outside the region and negligible risk to the United States or other distant populations according to CDC assessments. Direct-contact transmission, rapid international containment measures following the May PHEIC declaration, and the absence of airborne spread have kept the event from meeting pandemic criteria. While model projections note potential for several thousand additional cases if response weakens, sustained surveillance, contact tracing, and historical patterns of prior DRC outbreaks support the strong market view that global escalation remains unlikely through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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