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Tech·Science

How many SpaceX launches in May?

icon for How many SpaceX launches in May?
Tech·Science

How many SpaceX launches in May?

13 52%

11 48%

≤8 48%

9 48%

Polymarket
NEW

13 52%

11 48%

≤8 48%

9 48%

Polymarket
NEW

≤8

$0 Vol.

48%

9

$0 Vol.

48%

10

$0 Vol.

46%

11

$0 Vol.

48%

12

$0 Vol.

45%

13

$0 Vol.

52%

14 or more

$0 Vol.

45%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in SpaceX's May 2026 launch cadence, with even 41% implied probabilities across outcomes from ≤8 to 14 or more, driven by a sparse official manifest showing only four firm Falcon 9 missions—Starlink Group 10-38 on May 1 from Cape Canaveral SLC-40, multi-payload CAS500-2 on May 3 from Vandenberg SLC-4E, Starlink 17-29 on May 6, and NASA's CRS-34 cargo Dragon on May 12-13—despite April's 10 launches signaling booster reuse turnaround under two weeks. Key differentiators include Starship Flight 12's NET early May from Starbase, Texas, pending FAA licensing and static fire tests, alongside variable Starlink deployment demand and range constraints at Florida and California sites. Upcoming updates from SpaceX and range safety reviews could tip totals toward 10-12, aligning with 2026's projected 140-180 annual pace fueled by constellation expansion.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$0
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in SpaceX's May 2026 launch cadence, with even 41% implied probabilities across outcomes from ≤8 to 14 or more, driven by a sparse official manifest showing only four firm Falcon 9 missions—Starlink Group 10-38 on May 1 from Cape Canaveral SLC-40, multi-payload CAS500-2 on May 3 from Vandenberg SLC-4E, Starlink 17-29 on May 6, and NASA's CRS-34 cargo Dragon on May 12-13—despite April's 10 launches signaling booster reuse turnaround under two weeks. Key differentiators include Starship Flight 12's NET early May from Starbase, Texas, pending FAA licensing and static fire tests, alongside variable Starlink deployment demand and range constraints at Florida and California sites. Upcoming updates from SpaceX and range safety reviews could tip totals toward 10-12, aligning with 2026's projected 140-180 annual pace fueled by constellation expansion.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$0
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between May 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many SpaceX launches in May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "13" at 52%, followed by "≤8" at 48%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many SpaceX launches in May?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many SpaceX launches in May?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many SpaceX launches in May?" is "13" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "≤8" at 48%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many SpaceX launches in May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.