July 2026 delivered record-low rainfall across southern England, with provisional Met Office data showing England at just 5.6 mm total—about 8% of the long-term average—and southern regions recording only 1.5 mm. London stations reported near-zero measurable precipitation for the month, well below the typical 40–50 mm July climatology, driven by a prolonged heatwave and persistent high-pressure blocking that suppressed Atlantic fronts. These official observations from the UK Met Office and Environment Agency underpin the market's near-100% implied probability for totals under 30 mm. Final verification could shift only in the unlikely event of major post-processing revisions to rain-gauge data or definitional changes in the measurement period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in London in July?
Precipitation in London in July?
<30mm 100.0%
30-40mm <1%
40-50mm <1%
50-60mm <1%
$15,141 Vol.
$15,141 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<30mm
Yes
30-40mm
No
40-50mm
No
50-60mm
No
60-70mm
No
70-80mm
No
80mm+
No
<30mm 100.0%
30-40mm <1%
40-50mm <1%
50-60mm <1%
$15,141 Vol.
$15,141 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<30mm
$5,271 Vol.
Yes
30-40mm
$1,037 Vol.
No
40-50mm
$3,400 Vol.
No
50-60mm
$1,038 Vol.
No
60-70mm
$738 Vol.
No
70-80mm
$2,895 Vol.
No
80mm+
$762 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in July, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for July 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of July 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.July 2026 delivered record-low rainfall across southern England, with provisional Met Office data showing England at just 5.6 mm total—about 8% of the long-term average—and southern regions recording only 1.5 mm. London stations reported near-zero measurable precipitation for the month, well below the typical 40–50 mm July climatology, driven by a prolonged heatwave and persistent high-pressure blocking that suppressed Atlantic fronts. These official observations from the UK Met Office and Environment Agency underpin the market's near-100% implied probability for totals under 30 mm. Final verification could shift only in the unlikely event of major post-processing revisions to rain-gauge data or definitional changes in the measurement period.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in July, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for July 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of July 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for July 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of July 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 9:31 PM ET
Volume
$15,141End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in July, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for July 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of July 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.July 2026 delivered record-low rainfall across southern England, with provisional Met Office data showing England at just 5.6 mm total—about 8% of the long-term average—and southern regions recording only 1.5 mm. London stations reported near-zero measurable precipitation for the month, well below the typical 40–50 mm July climatology, driven by a prolonged heatwave and persistent high-pressure blocking that suppressed Atlantic fronts. These official observations from the UK Met Office and Environment Agency underpin the market's near-100% implied probability for totals under 30 mm. Final verification could shift only in the unlikely event of major post-processing revisions to rain-gauge data or definitional changes in the measurement period.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in July, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for July 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of July 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for July 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of July 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,141End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
July 2026 delivered record-low rainfall across southern England, with provisional Met Office data showing England at just 5.6 mm total—about 8% of the long-term average—and southern regions recording only 1.5 mm. London stations reported near-zero measurable precipitation for the month, well below the typical 40–50 mm July climatology, driven by a prolonged heatwave and persistent high-pressure blocking that suppressed Atlantic fronts. These official observations from the UK Met Office and Environment Agency underpin the market's near-100% implied probability for totals under 30 mm. Final verification could shift only in the unlikely event of major post-processing revisions to rain-gauge data or definitional changes in the measurement period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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