**Persistent heavy rainfall episodes driven by multiple tropical systems and troughs pushed July 2026 precipitation in Hong Kong well above the long-term average of roughly 380 mm.** Early-month showers from Maysak’s outer bands delivered 40–80 mm locally, while an active southwesterly airstream and broad low-pressure trough produced over 200 mm across much of the territory between 16–21 July, with localized totals exceeding 300 mm. Typhoon Noul’s passage on 26 July added another 70–140 mm, followed by further outbreaks exceeding 100 mm from 27–30 July. These confirmed events from Hong Kong Observatory monitoring have produced a market-implied consensus above 600 mm. A downward revision in official totals or measurement discrepancies could theoretically alter resolution, though such shifts remain improbable given the scale and distribution of recorded rainfall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in July?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?
600mm+ 100.0%
<400mm <1%
400-425mm <1%
425-450mm <1%
$58,448 Vol.
$58,448 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<400mm
No
400-425mm
No
425-450mm
No
450-475mm
No
475-500mm
No
500-525mm
No
525-550mm
No
550-575mm
No
575-600mm
No
600mm+
Yes
600mm+ 100.0%
<400mm <1%
400-425mm <1%
425-450mm <1%
$58,448 Vol.
$58,448 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<400mm
$8,619 Vol.
No
400-425mm
$4,280 Vol.
No
425-450mm
$3,896 Vol.
No
450-475mm
$3,232 Vol.
No
475-500mm
$4,170 Vol.
No
500-525mm
$1,226 Vol.
No
525-550mm
$6,013 Vol.
No
550-575mm
$4,175 Vol.
No
575-600mm
$2,642 Vol.
No
600mm+
$20,194 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent heavy rainfall episodes driven by multiple tropical systems and troughs pushed July 2026 precipitation in Hong Kong well above the long-term average of roughly 380 mm.** Early-month showers from Maysak’s outer bands delivered 40–80 mm locally, while an active southwesterly airstream and broad low-pressure trough produced over 200 mm across much of the territory between 16–21 July, with localized totals exceeding 300 mm. Typhoon Noul’s passage on 26 July added another 70–140 mm, followed by further outbreaks exceeding 100 mm from 27–30 July. These confirmed events from Hong Kong Observatory monitoring have produced a market-implied consensus above 600 mm. A downward revision in official totals or measurement discrepancies could theoretically alter resolution, though such shifts remain improbable given the scale and distribution of recorded rainfall.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$58,448End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent heavy rainfall episodes driven by multiple tropical systems and troughs pushed July 2026 precipitation in Hong Kong well above the long-term average of roughly 380 mm.** Early-month showers from Maysak’s outer bands delivered 40–80 mm locally, while an active southwesterly airstream and broad low-pressure trough produced over 200 mm across much of the territory between 16–21 July, with localized totals exceeding 300 mm. Typhoon Noul’s passage on 26 July added another 70–140 mm, followed by further outbreaks exceeding 100 mm from 27–30 July. These confirmed events from Hong Kong Observatory monitoring have produced a market-implied consensus above 600 mm. A downward revision in official totals or measurement discrepancies could theoretically alter resolution, though such shifts remain improbable given the scale and distribution of recorded rainfall.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,448End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Persistent heavy rainfall episodes driven by multiple tropical systems and troughs pushed July 2026 precipitation in Hong Kong well above the long-term average of roughly 380 mm.** Early-month showers from Maysak’s outer bands delivered 40–80 mm locally, while an active southwesterly airstream and broad low-pressure trough produced over 200 mm across much of the territory between 16–21 July, with localized totals exceeding 300 mm. Typhoon Noul’s passage on 26 July added another 70–140 mm, followed by further outbreaks exceeding 100 mm from 27–30 July. These confirmed events from Hong Kong Observatory monitoring have produced a market-implied consensus above 600 mm. A downward revision in official totals or measurement discrepancies could theoretically alter resolution, though such shifts remain improbable given the scale and distribution of recorded rainfall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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