Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Panama City, Panama's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities clustered around 32–34°C amid dry-season norms averaging 32°C highs. Recent guidance from global models like GFS and ECMWF shows a narrow spread, driven by persistent high pressure suppressing convection and allowing solar heating, though subtle differences in predicted cloud cover and sea breeze onset—potentially delaying inland peak warming—differentiate outcomes: lighter winds favor 34°C via reduced evaporative cooling, while diurnally developing cumulus could cap at 32°C. Overnight lows near 24°C and low precipitation risk support above-climatology warmth, but localized urban heat island effects at the official station add variability. Updated model runs expected overnight may refine this before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on April 5?
Highest temperature in Panama City on April 5?
33°C 31%
32°C 24%
30°C 21%
29°C 19%
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
19%
30°C
21%
31°C
18%
32°C
24%
33°C
31%
34°C
18%
35°C
16%
36°C
15%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 31%
32°C 24%
30°C 21%
29°C 19%
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
19%
30°C
21%
31°C
18%
32°C
24%
33°C
31%
34°C
18%
35°C
16%
36°C
15%
37°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Panama City, Panama's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities clustered around 32–34°C amid dry-season norms averaging 32°C highs. Recent guidance from global models like GFS and ECMWF shows a narrow spread, driven by persistent high pressure suppressing convection and allowing solar heating, though subtle differences in predicted cloud cover and sea breeze onset—potentially delaying inland peak warming—differentiate outcomes: lighter winds favor 34°C via reduced evaporative cooling, while diurnally developing cumulus could cap at 32°C. Overnight lows near 24°C and low precipitation risk support above-climatology warmth, but localized urban heat island effects at the official station add variability. Updated model runs expected overnight may refine this before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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