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Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

17°C or higher 44%

14°C 22%

15°C 21%

16°C 21%

Polymarket
NEW

17°C or higher 44%

14°C 22%

15°C 21%

16°C 21%

Polymarket
NEW

7°C or below

$379 Vol.

1%

8°C

$222 Vol.

1%

9°C

$227 Vol.

1%

10°C

$11 Vol.

13%

11°C

$10 Vol.

16%

12°C

$0 Vol.

15%

13°C

$0 Vol.

16%

14°C

$0 Vol.

22%

15°C

$0 Vol.

21%

16°C

$0 Vol.

21%

17°C or higher

$47 Vol.

44%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts position 17°C or higher as the leading outcome at 46% market-implied probability for Paris's highest temperature on April 4, driven by anticipated high-pressure ridge development ushering southerly flows and reduced cloud cover after late-March northerlies limited highs to around 12°C on March 29. Early April climatological highs average 13-14°C per historical Paris-Montsouris data, yet long-range outlooks signal slightly above-normal conditions, with model means clustering near 15-16°C and warmer tails boosting the top bin. Traders note 14-16°C alternatives at 20-21% amid 5-day uncertainty from evolving upper-air patterns; expect shifts from twice-daily ECMWF updates resolving via official station observations.

Latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts position 17°C or higher as the leading outcome at 46% market-implied probability for Paris's highest temperature on April 4, driven by anticipated high-pressure ridge development ushering southerly flows and reduced cloud cover after late-March northerlies limited highs to around 12°C on March 29. Early April climatological highs average 13-14°C per historical Paris-Montsouris data, yet long-range outlooks signal slightly above-normal conditions, with model means clustering near 15-16°C and warmer tails boosting the top bin. Traders note 14-16°C alternatives at 20-21% amid 5-day uncertainty from evolving upper-air patterns; expect shifts from twice-daily ECMWF updates resolving via official station observations.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts position 17°C or higher as the leading outcome at 46% market-implied probability for Paris's highest temperature on April 4, driven by anticipated high-pressure ridge development ushering southerly flows and reduced cloud cover after late-March northerlies limited highs to around 12°C on March 29. Early April climatological highs average 13-14°C per historical Paris-Montsouris data, yet long-range outlooks signal slightly above-normal conditions, with model means clustering near 15-16°C and warmer tails boosting the top bin. Traders note 14-16°C alternatives at 20-21% amid 5-day uncertainty from evolving upper-air patterns; expect shifts from twice-daily ECMWF updates resolving via official station observations.

Latest Météo-France guidance and ECMWF ensemble forecasts position 17°C or higher as the leading outcome at 46% market-implied probability for Paris's highest temperature on April 4, driven by anticipated high-pressure ridge development ushering southerly flows and reduced cloud cover after late-March northerlies limited highs to around 12°C on March 29. Early April climatological highs average 13-14°C per historical Paris-Montsouris data, yet long-range outlooks signal slightly above-normal conditions, with model means clustering near 15-16°C and warmer tails boosting the top bin. Traders note 14-16°C alternatives at 20-21% amid 5-day uncertainty from evolving upper-air patterns; expect shifts from twice-daily ECMWF updates resolving via official station observations.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "17°C or higher" at 44%, followed by "14°C" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?" is "17°C or higher" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "14°C" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.