Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities spread across 22–29°C as global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles project 23–26°C under partly cloudy conditions. Recent BBC and AccuWeather guidance shows highs near 25°C with sunny intervals and light winds, up from cooler late-March readings around 19–23°C amid light rain, signaling a warming trend into early spring. Key differentiators include potential temperature inversions in the Sichuan Basin trapping haze to cap peaks at 23°C, versus clearing skies allowing 27–28°C; persistent frontal moisture could favor lower outcomes, while model runs through April 2–3 will refine cloud cover and steering patterns ahead of resolution based on official Chengdu station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 4?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 4?
23°C 22%
29°C 16%
21°C or below 15%
22°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
21°C or below
15%
22°C
15%
23°C
22%
24°C
10%
25°C
12%
26°C
12%
27°C
14%
28°C
18%
29°C
16%
30°C
14%
31°C or higher
4%
23°C 22%
29°C 16%
21°C or below 15%
22°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
21°C or below
$10 Vol.
15%
22°C
$10 Vol.
15%
23°C
$10 Vol.
22%
24°C
$11 Vol.
10%
25°C
$10 Vol.
12%
26°C
$10 Vol.
12%
27°C
$10 Vol.
14%
28°C
$21 Vol.
18%
29°C
$30 Vol.
16%
30°C
$10 Vol.
14%
31°C or higher
$163 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities spread across 22–29°C as global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles project 23–26°C under partly cloudy conditions. Recent BBC and AccuWeather guidance shows highs near 25°C with sunny intervals and light winds, up from cooler late-March readings around 19–23°C amid light rain, signaling a warming trend into early spring. Key differentiators include potential temperature inversions in the Sichuan Basin trapping haze to cap peaks at 23°C, versus clearing skies allowing 27–28°C; persistent frontal moisture could favor lower outcomes, while model runs through April 2–3 will refine cloud cover and steering patterns ahead of resolution based on official Chengdu station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$295End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities spread across 22–29°C as global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles project 23–26°C under partly cloudy conditions. Recent BBC and AccuWeather guidance shows highs near 25°C with sunny intervals and light winds, up from cooler late-March readings around 19–23°C amid light rain, signaling a warming trend into early spring. Key differentiators include potential temperature inversions in the Sichuan Basin trapping haze to cap peaks at 23°C, versus clearing skies allowing 27–28°C; persistent frontal moisture could favor lower outcomes, while model runs through April 2–3 will refine cloud cover and steering patterns ahead of resolution based on official Chengdu station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$295End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities spread across 22–29°C as global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles project 23–26°C under partly cloudy conditions. Recent BBC and AccuWeather guidance shows highs near 25°C with sunny intervals and light winds, up from cooler late-March readings around 19–23°C amid light rain, signaling a warming trend into early spring. Key differentiators include potential temperature inversions in the Sichuan Basin trapping haze to cap peaks at 23°C, versus clearing skies allowing 27–28°C; persistent frontal moisture could favor lower outcomes, while model runs through April 2–3 will refine cloud cover and steering patterns ahead of resolution based on official Chengdu station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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