Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's highest temperature on April 5 clustering tightly around 23-24°C, driving trader consensus with those outcomes leading at similar market-implied probabilities amid 1-2°C model spread. This reflects a mild warm-up from early April climatological highs of 18-20°C, fueled by high-pressure ridging over eastern China promoting solar insolation under partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes moderating coastal influences. Key differentiators include afternoon cloud cover variability—persistent overcast favors 23°C by limiting heating, while clearer intervals support 24°C—plus urban heat island amplification at the Pudong Airport observation site. Traders eye April 4 surface observations and next 12Z model updates to resolve lingering uncertainty inherent in 48-hour outlooks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 5?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 5?
24°C 23%
23°C 19%
22°C 16%
26°C 12.7%
NEW
$19,000 Vol.
NEW
$19,000 Vol.
Apr 5, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
5%
22°C
16%
23°C
19%
24°C
23%
25°C
13%
26°C
13%
27°C
4%
28°C or higher
2%
24°C 23%
23°C 19%
22°C 16%
26°C 12.7%
NEW
$19,000 Vol.
NEW
$19,000 Vol.
Apr 5, 2026
18°C or below
$2,799 Vol.
1%
19°C
$1,696 Vol.
1%
20°C
$1,362 Vol.
3%
21°C
$1,306 Vol.
5%
22°C
$1,262 Vol.
16%
23°C
$1,514 Vol.
19%
24°C
$1,767 Vol.
23%
25°C
$1,899 Vol.
13%
26°C
$2,333 Vol.
13%
27°C
$1,296 Vol.
4%
28°C or higher
$1,764 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's highest temperature on April 5 clustering tightly around 23-24°C, driving trader consensus with those outcomes leading at similar market-implied probabilities amid 1-2°C model spread. This reflects a mild warm-up from early April climatological highs of 18-20°C, fueled by high-pressure ridging over eastern China promoting solar insolation under partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes moderating coastal influences. Key differentiators include afternoon cloud cover variability—persistent overcast favors 23°C by limiting heating, while clearer intervals support 24°C—plus urban heat island amplification at the Pudong Airport observation site. Traders eye April 4 surface observations and next 12Z model updates to resolve lingering uncertainty inherent in 48-hour outlooks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$19,000End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's highest temperature on April 5 clustering tightly around 23-24°C, driving trader consensus with those outcomes leading at similar market-implied probabilities amid 1-2°C model spread. This reflects a mild warm-up from early April climatological highs of 18-20°C, fueled by high-pressure ridging over eastern China promoting solar insolation under partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes moderating coastal influences. Key differentiators include afternoon cloud cover variability—persistent overcast favors 23°C by limiting heating, while clearer intervals support 24°C—plus urban heat island amplification at the Pudong Airport observation site. Traders eye April 4 surface observations and next 12Z model updates to resolve lingering uncertainty inherent in 48-hour outlooks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$19,000End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and China Meteorological Administration indicate Shanghai's highest temperature on April 5 clustering tightly around 23-24°C, driving trader consensus with those outcomes leading at similar market-implied probabilities amid 1-2°C model spread. This reflects a mild warm-up from early April climatological highs of 18-20°C, fueled by high-pressure ridging over eastern China promoting solar insolation under partly cloudy skies and light southerly breezes moderating coastal influences. Key differentiators include afternoon cloud cover variability—persistent overcast favors 23°C by limiting heating, while clearer intervals support 24°C—plus urban heat island amplification at the Pudong Airport observation site. Traders eye April 4 surface observations and next 12Z model updates to resolve lingering uncertainty inherent in 48-hour outlooks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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