Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent uncertainty in 4-day spring forecasts for Shanghai, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means projecting a high temperature around 20–22°C on April 6 amid variable cloud cover and light southerly winds. The slight edge for 27°C or higher at 25.5% stems from potential warm advection if high-pressure ridges build from the south, boosting temperatures above climatological norms of 18–21°C for early April, while clustered odds near 21–23°C align with model consensus under partly cloudy skies. Lower probabilities for 17°C or below acknowledge minimal cold air intrusion risk, per recent China Meteorological Administration updates. New ensemble runs expected daily could shift spreads as frontal timing clarifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 6?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 6?
24°C 22%
23°C 17%
26°C 14%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 6, 2026
17°C or below
2%
18°C
6%
19°C
10%
20°C
11%
21°C
10%
22°C
18%
23°C
17%
24°C
22%
25°C
16%
26°C
14%
27°C or higher
13%
24°C 22%
23°C 17%
26°C 14%
22°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 6, 2026
17°C or below
$72 Vol.
2%
18°C
$10 Vol.
6%
19°C
$6 Vol.
10%
20°C
$5 Vol.
11%
21°C
$5 Vol.
10%
22°C
$8 Vol.
18%
23°C
$5 Vol.
17%
24°C
$5 Vol.
22%
25°C
$6 Vol.
16%
26°C
$17 Vol.
14%
27°C or higher
$20 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent uncertainty in 4-day spring forecasts for Shanghai, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means projecting a high temperature around 20–22°C on April 6 amid variable cloud cover and light southerly winds. The slight edge for 27°C or higher at 25.5% stems from potential warm advection if high-pressure ridges build from the south, boosting temperatures above climatological norms of 18–21°C for early April, while clustered odds near 21–23°C align with model consensus under partly cloudy skies. Lower probabilities for 17°C or below acknowledge minimal cold air intrusion risk, per recent China Meteorological Administration updates. New ensemble runs expected daily could shift spreads as frontal timing clarifies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volume
$104End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent uncertainty in 4-day spring forecasts for Shanghai, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means projecting a high temperature around 20–22°C on April 6 amid variable cloud cover and light southerly winds. The slight edge for 27°C or higher at 25.5% stems from potential warm advection if high-pressure ridges build from the south, boosting temperatures above climatological norms of 18–21°C for early April, while clustered odds near 21–23°C align with model consensus under partly cloudy skies. Lower probabilities for 17°C or below acknowledge minimal cold air intrusion risk, per recent China Meteorological Administration updates. New ensemble runs expected daily could shift spreads as frontal timing clarifies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$104End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the inherent uncertainty in 4-day spring forecasts for Shanghai, with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means projecting a high temperature around 20–22°C on April 6 amid variable cloud cover and light southerly winds. The slight edge for 27°C or higher at 25.5% stems from potential warm advection if high-pressure ridges build from the south, boosting temperatures above climatological norms of 18–21°C for early April, while clustered odds near 21–23°C align with model consensus under partly cloudy skies. Lower probabilities for 17°C or below acknowledge minimal cold air intrusion risk, per recent China Meteorological Administration updates. New ensemble runs expected daily could shift spreads as frontal timing clarifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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