Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast ensembles for Madrid's April 6 high temperature, with implied probabilities closely split between a cool 19°C or below (25%) and an unusually hot 29°C or higher (25.5%), driven by divergent global models like ECMWF and GFS. Recent AEMET updates highlight a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia post a cool northerly flow on April 2 (max 19°C), potentially yielding 25–28°C under clear skies and light easterly winds, though persistent Atlantic fronts or cloud cover could cap peaks near historical April averages of 18–19°C. Early spring variability, including jet stream positioning and recent soil moisture from northern rains, differentiates outcomes; watch daily AEMET bulletins and new model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on April 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 6?
25°C 24%
24°C 18%
26°C 16%
27°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 6, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
4%
22°C
5%
23°C
3%
24°C
18%
25°C
24%
26°C
22%
27°C
13%
28°C
8%
29°C or higher
9%
25°C 24%
24°C 18%
26°C 16%
27°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 6, 2026
19°C or below
$205 Vol.
1%
20°C
$65 Vol.
2%
21°C
$10 Vol.
4%
22°C
$10 Vol.
5%
23°C
$47 Vol.
3%
24°C
$0 Vol.
18%
25°C
$0 Vol.
24%
26°C
$11 Vol.
22%
27°C
$9 Vol.
13%
28°C
$0 Vol.
8%
29°C or higher
$1 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast ensembles for Madrid's April 6 high temperature, with implied probabilities closely split between a cool 19°C or below (25%) and an unusually hot 29°C or higher (25.5%), driven by divergent global models like ECMWF and GFS. Recent AEMET updates highlight a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia post a cool northerly flow on April 2 (max 19°C), potentially yielding 25–28°C under clear skies and light easterly winds, though persistent Atlantic fronts or cloud cover could cap peaks near historical April averages of 18–19°C. Early spring variability, including jet stream positioning and recent soil moisture from northern rains, differentiates outcomes; watch daily AEMET bulletins and new model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:42 AM ET
Volume
$358End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:42 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast ensembles for Madrid's April 6 high temperature, with implied probabilities closely split between a cool 19°C or below (25%) and an unusually hot 29°C or higher (25.5%), driven by divergent global models like ECMWF and GFS. Recent AEMET updates highlight a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia post a cool northerly flow on April 2 (max 19°C), potentially yielding 25–28°C under clear skies and light easterly winds, though persistent Atlantic fronts or cloud cover could cap peaks near historical April averages of 18–19°C. Early spring variability, including jet stream positioning and recent soil moisture from northern rains, differentiates outcomes; watch daily AEMET bulletins and new model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$358End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:42 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in forecast ensembles for Madrid's April 6 high temperature, with implied probabilities closely split between a cool 19°C or below (25%) and an unusually hot 29°C or higher (25.5%), driven by divergent global models like ECMWF and GFS. Recent AEMET updates highlight a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia post a cool northerly flow on April 2 (max 19°C), potentially yielding 25–28°C under clear skies and light easterly winds, though persistent Atlantic fronts or cloud cover could cap peaks near historical April averages of 18–19°C. Early spring variability, including jet stream positioning and recent soil moisture from northern rains, differentiates outcomes; watch daily AEMET bulletins and new model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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