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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

26°C 23%

29°C or higher 22%

25°C 22%

27°C 21%

Polymarket
NEW

26°C 23%

29°C or higher 22%

25°C 22%

27°C 21%

Polymarket
NEW

19°C or below

$342 Vol.

1%

20°C

$525 Vol.

2%

21°C

$79 Vol.

3%

22°C

$11 Vol.

7%

23°C

$0 Vol.

9%

24°C

$0 Vol.

12%

25°C

$0 Vol.

22%

26°C

$0 Vol.

23%

27°C

$0 Vol.

21%

28°C

$0 Vol.

18%

29°C or higher

$100 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a high near 27°C on April 4 amid cloudy skies, showers, and thunderstorms from a trough of low pressure over southern China, tempering trader consensus toward mid-to-high 20s outcomes like 26°C (23.5% implied probability) and 27°C (21%). Yet, 29°C or higher leads at 29.5% due to spring's normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook, recent 28°C peak on March 30, and potential for sunny breaks boosting solar heating. Model uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and shower timing, with historical April averages around 25°C but climatological warming trends adding upside risk. Daily updates through April 1's monthly forecast will refine resolution based on King's Park observations.

The Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a high near 27°C on April 4 amid cloudy skies, showers, and thunderstorms from a trough of low pressure over southern China, tempering trader consensus toward mid-to-high 20s outcomes like 26°C (23.5% implied probability) and 27°C (21%). Yet, 29°C or higher leads at 29.5% due to spring's normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook, recent 28°C peak on March 30, and potential for sunny breaks boosting solar heating. Model uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and shower timing, with historical April averages around 25°C but climatological warming trends adding upside risk. Daily updates through April 1's monthly forecast will refine resolution based on King's Park observations.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a high near 27°C on April 4 amid cloudy skies, showers, and thunderstorms from a trough of low pressure over southern China, tempering trader consensus toward mid-to-high 20s outcomes like 26°C (23.5% implied probability) and 27°C (21%). Yet, 29°C or higher leads at 29.5% due to spring's normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook, recent 28°C peak on March 30, and potential for sunny breaks boosting solar heating. Model uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and shower timing, with historical April averages around 25°C but climatological warming trends adding upside risk. Daily updates through April 1's monthly forecast will refine resolution based on King's Park observations.

The Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a high near 27°C on April 4 amid cloudy skies, showers, and thunderstorms from a trough of low pressure over southern China, tempering trader consensus toward mid-to-high 20s outcomes like 26°C (23.5% implied probability) and 27°C (21%). Yet, 29°C or higher leads at 29.5% due to spring's normal-to-above-normal temperature outlook, recent 28°C peak on March 30, and potential for sunny breaks boosting solar heating. Model uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and shower timing, with historical April averages around 25°C but climatological warming trends adding upside risk. Daily updates through April 1's monthly forecast will refine resolution based on King's Park observations.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "26°C" at 23%, followed by "25°C" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?" is "26°C" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "25°C" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.