Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 13°C (36.5% implied probability) at London City Airport on April 5, driven by the latest Met Office forecast projecting exactly that amid cloudy skies with sunny intervals, midday showers likely between 11am-2pm, and gusty winds up to 39mph reducing the feels-like temperature to around 10°C. This positioning reflects model consensus on a mild but unsettled Atlantic weather pattern following warmer early-week highs of 15-16°C, aligning with historical April averages of 13°C maximums. Breezy conditions and 40-60% rain probabilities cap upside potential, concentrating odds around 12-14°C, though overnight forecast updates could shift trajectories as resolution nears in 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on April 5?
Highest temperature in London on April 5?
13°C 46%
12°C 24%
14°C 17%
11°C 7%
$10,611 Vol.
$10,611 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
7%
12°C
24%
13°C
46%
14°C
17%
15°C
6%
16°C
3%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
13°C 46%
12°C 24%
14°C 17%
11°C 7%
$10,611 Vol.
$10,611 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
7%
12°C
24%
13°C
46%
14°C
17%
15°C
6%
16°C
3%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 13°C (36.5% implied probability) at London City Airport on April 5, driven by the latest Met Office forecast projecting exactly that amid cloudy skies with sunny intervals, midday showers likely between 11am-2pm, and gusty winds up to 39mph reducing the feels-like temperature to around 10°C. This positioning reflects model consensus on a mild but unsettled Atlantic weather pattern following warmer early-week highs of 15-16°C, aligning with historical April averages of 13°C maximums. Breezy conditions and 40-60% rain probabilities cap upside potential, concentrating odds around 12-14°C, though overnight forecast updates could shift trajectories as resolution nears in 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions