Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 9°C in Ankara on April 8, driven by verified observations from the Esenboğa International Airport station, the official resolution source per Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) protocols. Persistent cloud cover, light precipitation, and northerly winds under a cool upper-air pattern suppressed daytime heating, aligning with MGM's recent frost warnings and ensemble model outputs showing temperatures well below April climatological norms of 16°C. Historical spring analogs confirm such chilly anomalies occur 10-15% of the time amid variable Black Sea influences. Only an official data revision—extremely rare post-validation—could challenge this positioning, with final MGM confirmation expected shortly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on April 8?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 8?
9°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$144,327 Vol.
$144,327 Vol.
8°C or below
No
9°C
Yes
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
9°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$144,327 Vol.
$144,327 Vol.
8°C or below
No
9°C
Yes
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 9°C in Ankara on April 8, driven by verified observations from the Esenboğa International Airport station, the official resolution source per Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) protocols. Persistent cloud cover, light precipitation, and northerly winds under a cool upper-air pattern suppressed daytime heating, aligning with MGM's recent frost warnings and ensemble model outputs showing temperatures well below April climatological norms of 16°C. Historical spring analogs confirm such chilly anomalies occur 10-15% of the time amid variable Black Sea influences. Only an official data revision—extremely rare post-validation—could challenge this positioning, with final MGM confirmation expected shortly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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