Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 77°F or below in New York City on April 17, backed by the official National Weather Service measurement at Central Park, which recorded a daily maximum well within this range amid post-frontal cooling. Following an anomalous early-April heat wave—peaking at a record-tying 90°F on April 15 and near 88°F on April 16—a cold frontal passage introduced cooler mid-level air masses, persistent cloud cover, and light precipitation threats, suppressing daytime heating to near historical mid-April averages around 63°F. Model ensembles from NOAA had anticipated this moderation days prior. Realistic challenges are negligible post-preliminary climatological report release, requiring only a rare data verification revision from archived observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on April 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 17?
77°F or below 100.0%
78-79°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$331,146 Vol.
$331,146 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
77°F or below
Yes
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94-95°F
No
96°F or higher
No
77°F or below 100.0%
78-79°F <1%
80-81°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$331,146 Vol.
$331,146 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
77°F or below
$114,123 Vol.
Yes
78-79°F
$57,536 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$55,192 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$25,381 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$20,067 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$8,446 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$13,687 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$8,894 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$9,857 Vol.
No
94-95°F
$10,365 Vol.
No
96°F or higher
$7,598 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 77°F or below in New York City on April 17, backed by the official National Weather Service measurement at Central Park, which recorded a daily maximum well within this range amid post-frontal cooling. Following an anomalous early-April heat wave—peaking at a record-tying 90°F on April 15 and near 88°F on April 16—a cold frontal passage introduced cooler mid-level air masses, persistent cloud cover, and light precipitation threats, suppressing daytime heating to near historical mid-April averages around 63°F. Model ensembles from NOAA had anticipated this moderation days prior. Realistic challenges are negligible post-preliminary climatological report release, requiring only a rare data verification revision from archived observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$331,146End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 77°F or below in New York City on April 17, backed by the official National Weather Service measurement at Central Park, which recorded a daily maximum well within this range amid post-frontal cooling. Following an anomalous early-April heat wave—peaking at a record-tying 90°F on April 15 and near 88°F on April 16—a cold frontal passage introduced cooler mid-level air masses, persistent cloud cover, and light precipitation threats, suppressing daytime heating to near historical mid-April averages around 63°F. Model ensembles from NOAA had anticipated this moderation days prior. Realistic challenges are negligible post-preliminary climatological report release, requiring only a rare data verification revision from archived observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$331,146End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 77°F or below in New York City on April 17, backed by the official National Weather Service measurement at Central Park, which recorded a daily maximum well within this range amid post-frontal cooling. Following an anomalous early-April heat wave—peaking at a record-tying 90°F on April 15 and near 88°F on April 16—a cold frontal passage introduced cooler mid-level air masses, persistent cloud cover, and light precipitation threats, suppressing daytime heating to near historical mid-April averages around 63°F. Model ensembles from NOAA had anticipated this moderation days prior. Realistic challenges are negligible post-preliminary climatological report release, requiring only a rare data verification revision from archived observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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