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Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?

Mar 30

Mar 31

Apr 1

Apr 2

Mar 30

Mar 31

Apr 1

Apr 2

16°C or higher 42%

13°C 26%

12°C 20%

15°C 18%

Polymarket
NEW

16°C or higher 42%

13°C 26%

12°C 20%

15°C 18%

Polymarket
NEW

6°C or below

$230 Vol.

1%

7°C

$223 Vol.

1%

8°C

$0 Vol.

14%

9°C

$0 Vol.

16%

10°C

$0 Vol.

18%

11°C

$0 Vol.

18%

12°C

$0 Vol.

20%

13°C

$9 Vol.

26%

14°C

$0 Vol.

18%

15°C

$0 Vol.

18%

16°C or higher

$3 Vol.

42%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 4 around 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, positioning 16°C or higher as the trader-favored outcome at 40.5% implied probability amid typical early-spring mildness. Recent heavy rain on March 30 capped highs near 11°C, but southerly airflow and seasonal warming trends support recovery, aligning with climatological averages of 14-17°C for early April and historical variability from 8°C to 25°C. Model consensus reflects this balance, though cloud cover and frontal timing introduce uncertainty; traders await daily updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and NOAA GFS runs through April 2 for potential shifts in intensification or clearing.

Latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 4 around 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, positioning 16°C or higher as the trader-favored outcome at 40.5% implied probability amid typical early-spring mildness. Recent heavy rain on March 30 capped highs near 11°C, but southerly airflow and seasonal warming trends support recovery, aligning with climatological averages of 14-17°C for early April and historical variability from 8°C to 25°C. Model consensus reflects this balance, though cloud cover and frontal timing introduce uncertainty; traders await daily updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and NOAA GFS runs through April 2 for potential shifts in intensification or clearing.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 4 around 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, positioning 16°C or higher as the trader-favored outcome at 40.5% implied probability amid typical early-spring mildness. Recent heavy rain on March 30 capped highs near 11°C, but southerly airflow and seasonal warming trends support recovery, aligning with climatological averages of 14-17°C for early April and historical variability from 8°C to 25°C. Model consensus reflects this balance, though cloud cover and frontal timing introduce uncertainty; traders await daily updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and NOAA GFS runs through April 2 for potential shifts in intensification or clearing.

Latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 4 around 14-16°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers, positioning 16°C or higher as the trader-favored outcome at 40.5% implied probability amid typical early-spring mildness. Recent heavy rain on March 30 capped highs near 11°C, but southerly airflow and seasonal warming trends support recovery, aligning with climatological averages of 14-17°C for early April and historical variability from 8°C to 25°C. Model consensus reflects this balance, though cloud cover and frontal timing introduce uncertainty; traders await daily updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and NOAA GFS runs through April 2 for potential shifts in intensification or clearing.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "16°C or higher" at 42%, followed by "13°C" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?" is "16°C or higher" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "13°C" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.