No CDC Level 4 travel health notices currently exist, as confirmed by official monitoring data through early June 2026, which underpins the 76.5% market-implied probability against issuance by year-end. Existing outbreaks remain contained at lower advisory tiers, including Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo under Level 3 parameters and various dengue or polio alerts at Level 1 or 2, reflecting measurable case thresholds and available precautions rather than extreme uncontrolled risks. Historical patterns show Level 4 notices require severe conditions with no viable mitigation, conditions not indicated in recent CDC assessments or model consensus. Traders weigh these factors against potential new variant emergence or rapid transmission shifts ahead of December 31 resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?
Sim
$71,851 Vol.
$71,851 Vol.
Sim
$71,851 Vol.
$71,851 Vol.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...No CDC Level 4 travel health notices currently exist, as confirmed by official monitoring data through early June 2026, which underpins the 76.5% market-implied probability against issuance by year-end. Existing outbreaks remain contained at lower advisory tiers, including Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo under Level 3 parameters and various dengue or polio alerts at Level 1 or 2, reflecting measurable case thresholds and available precautions rather than extreme uncontrolled risks. Historical patterns show Level 4 notices require severe conditions with no viable mitigation, conditions not indicated in recent CDC assessments or model consensus. Traders weigh these factors against potential new variant emergence or rapid transmission shifts ahead of December 31 resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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