Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting Los Angeles highs near 72-75°F on April 5, with tight clustering amid model spread of 68-76°F, explaining the close competition among top outcomes. Recent cooling after late-March's record heat wave exceeding 95°F downtown has ushered cooler-than-normal conditions via persistent onshore flow and marine layer stratus from the cool California Current, capping coastal temperatures while inland valleys warm more. Differentiating factors include marine layer burn-off timing—persistent clouds favor 70-73°F, quicker clearing under building high pressure boosts to 74-77°F—and subtle upper-level ridge positioning. Daily 00Z/12Z model runs and NWS updates through April 4 will refine probabilities ahead of resolution using official downtown Los Angeles observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on April 5?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on April 5?
74-75°F 21%
70-71°F 15%
72-73°F 15%
76-77°F 15%
67°F or below
5%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
12%
72-73°F
15%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
15%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
5%
86°F or higher
2%
74-75°F 21%
70-71°F 15%
72-73°F 15%
76-77°F 15%
67°F or below
5%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
12%
72-73°F
15%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
15%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
5%
86°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting Los Angeles highs near 72-75°F on April 5, with tight clustering amid model spread of 68-76°F, explaining the close competition among top outcomes. Recent cooling after late-March's record heat wave exceeding 95°F downtown has ushered cooler-than-normal conditions via persistent onshore flow and marine layer stratus from the cool California Current, capping coastal temperatures while inland valleys warm more. Differentiating factors include marine layer burn-off timing—persistent clouds favor 70-73°F, quicker clearing under building high pressure boosts to 74-77°F—and subtle upper-level ridge positioning. Daily 00Z/12Z model runs and NWS updates through April 4 will refine probabilities ahead of resolution using official downtown Los Angeles observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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