Trader consensus favors zero (46.5%) or one (33%) magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 6-12, reflecting USGS historical data showing a baseline rate of roughly 0.8 such events per week globally, modeled as a Poisson process amid tectonic strain randomness. Late March saw an above-average cluster of six M6.5+ quakes— including 7.5 Tonga, 6.5 Japan, 7.3 Vanuatu, and others along the Pacific Ring of Fire—peaking activity, followed by a 7.4 near Indonesia on April 1; however, no M6.5+ have occurred since, per USGS real-time catalog through April 5, signaling regression to mean without ongoing swarms. The U.S. Geological Survey's global seismic network provides continuous monitoring, with new detections potentially adjusting market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - 12?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - 12?
0 47%
1 33%
2 13%
3 5%
NEW
$17,154 Vol.
NEW
$17,154 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
0
47%
1
33%
2
13%
3
5%
4
1%
5
3%
>5
1%
0 47%
1 33%
2 13%
3 5%
NEW
$17,154 Vol.
NEW
$17,154 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
0
$4,997 Vol.
47%
1
$1,736 Vol.
33%
2
$2,316 Vol.
13%
3
$1,673 Vol.
5%
4
$1,525 Vol.
1%
5
$2,542 Vol.
3%
>5
$2,365 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors zero (46.5%) or one (33%) magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 6-12, reflecting USGS historical data showing a baseline rate of roughly 0.8 such events per week globally, modeled as a Poisson process amid tectonic strain randomness. Late March saw an above-average cluster of six M6.5+ quakes— including 7.5 Tonga, 6.5 Japan, 7.3 Vanuatu, and others along the Pacific Ring of Fire—peaking activity, followed by a 7.4 near Indonesia on April 1; however, no M6.5+ have occurred since, per USGS real-time catalog through April 5, signaling regression to mean without ongoing swarms. The U.S. Geological Survey's global seismic network provides continuous monitoring, with new detections potentially adjusting market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
Volume
$17,154End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors zero (46.5%) or one (33%) magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 6-12, reflecting USGS historical data showing a baseline rate of roughly 0.8 such events per week globally, modeled as a Poisson process amid tectonic strain randomness. Late March saw an above-average cluster of six M6.5+ quakes— including 7.5 Tonga, 6.5 Japan, 7.3 Vanuatu, and others along the Pacific Ring of Fire—peaking activity, followed by a 7.4 near Indonesia on April 1; however, no M6.5+ have occurred since, per USGS real-time catalog through April 5, signaling regression to mean without ongoing swarms. The U.S. Geological Survey's global seismic network provides continuous monitoring, with new detections potentially adjusting market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$17,154End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors zero (46.5%) or one (33%) magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 6-12, reflecting USGS historical data showing a baseline rate of roughly 0.8 such events per week globally, modeled as a Poisson process amid tectonic strain randomness. Late March saw an above-average cluster of six M6.5+ quakes— including 7.5 Tonga, 6.5 Japan, 7.3 Vanuatu, and others along the Pacific Ring of Fire—peaking activity, followed by a 7.4 near Indonesia on April 1; however, no M6.5+ have occurred since, per USGS real-time catalog through April 5, signaling regression to mean without ongoing swarms. The U.S. Geological Survey's global seismic network provides continuous monitoring, with new detections potentially adjusting market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions