Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 22–24°C for Milan's highest temperature on April 5, mirroring the spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing peaks of 21–24°C amid mild spring conditions. ARPA Lombardia's April 2 bulletin highlights stable high pressure from the Atlantic ridge bringing clear skies and temperatures exceeding 20°C across the Po Valley plain, with maxima in further rise from recent sunny days averaging 18–21°C. Differentiating factors include model divergences on peak afternoon insolation, potential thin high clouds, and urban heat island effects in Milan boosting readings by 1–2°C above rural stations. New ARPA updates and model runs expected April 3–4 could refine this tight race before resolution based on official Linate Airport measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on April 5?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 5?
23°C 31%
22°C 27%
24°C 24%
21°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
4%
21°C
10%
22°C
27%
23°C
36%
24°C
24%
25°C
10%
26°C or higher
4%
23°C 31%
22°C 27%
24°C 24%
21°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
16°C or below
$1,487 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,289 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,034 Vol.
1%
19°C
$244 Vol.
2%
20°C
$312 Vol.
4%
21°C
$196 Vol.
10%
22°C
$358 Vol.
27%
23°C
$256 Vol.
36%
24°C
$161 Vol.
24%
25°C
$245 Vol.
10%
26°C or higher
$522 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 22–24°C for Milan's highest temperature on April 5, mirroring the spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing peaks of 21–24°C amid mild spring conditions. ARPA Lombardia's April 2 bulletin highlights stable high pressure from the Atlantic ridge bringing clear skies and temperatures exceeding 20°C across the Po Valley plain, with maxima in further rise from recent sunny days averaging 18–21°C. Differentiating factors include model divergences on peak afternoon insolation, potential thin high clouds, and urban heat island effects in Milan boosting readings by 1–2°C above rural stations. New ARPA updates and model runs expected April 3–4 could refine this tight race before resolution based on official Linate Airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$5,990End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 22–24°C for Milan's highest temperature on April 5, mirroring the spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing peaks of 21–24°C amid mild spring conditions. ARPA Lombardia's April 2 bulletin highlights stable high pressure from the Atlantic ridge bringing clear skies and temperatures exceeding 20°C across the Po Valley plain, with maxima in further rise from recent sunny days averaging 18–21°C. Differentiating factors include model divergences on peak afternoon insolation, potential thin high clouds, and urban heat island effects in Milan boosting readings by 1–2°C above rural stations. New ARPA updates and model runs expected April 3–4 could refine this tight race before resolution based on official Linate Airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,990End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 22–24°C for Milan's highest temperature on April 5, mirroring the spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing peaks of 21–24°C amid mild spring conditions. ARPA Lombardia's April 2 bulletin highlights stable high pressure from the Atlantic ridge bringing clear skies and temperatures exceeding 20°C across the Po Valley plain, with maxima in further rise from recent sunny days averaging 18–21°C. Differentiating factors include model divergences on peak afternoon insolation, potential thin high clouds, and urban heat island effects in Milan boosting readings by 1–2°C above rural stations. New ARPA updates and model runs expected April 3–4 could refine this tight race before resolution based on official Linate Airport measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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