Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Dallas's highest temperature on April 7, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverging sharply—some runs projecting mid-60s°F amid lingering effects from the recent heavy rain system (April 2-4) and potential late frontal passage, while others forecast 78-80°F+ under building high pressure and southerly winds following Easter weekend clearing. This model spread, typical of North Texas spring variability (historical April highs average 76°F), elevates implied probabilities to 50% across cool (61°F or below), warm (78-79°F), and hot (80°F+) bins. Key differentiators include jet stream positioning and cloud cover persistence; watch NWS updates and 12z model runs through April 5 for refined guidance on frontal timing and ridging strength.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on April 7?
Highest temperature in Dallas on April 7?
70-71°F 25%
72-73°F 24%
68-69°F 17%
74-75°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 7, 2026
61°F or below
3%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
12%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
17%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
24%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
11%
80°F or higher
11%
70-71°F 25%
72-73°F 24%
68-69°F 17%
74-75°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 7, 2026
61°F or below
$0 Vol.
3%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
9%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
12%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
8%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
17%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
25%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
24%
74-75°F
$18 Vol.
14%
76-77°F
$55 Vol.
8%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
11%
80°F or higher
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Dallas's highest temperature on April 7, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverging sharply—some runs projecting mid-60s°F amid lingering effects from the recent heavy rain system (April 2-4) and potential late frontal passage, while others forecast 78-80°F+ under building high pressure and southerly winds following Easter weekend clearing. This model spread, typical of North Texas spring variability (historical April highs average 76°F), elevates implied probabilities to 50% across cool (61°F or below), warm (78-79°F), and hot (80°F+) bins. Key differentiators include jet stream positioning and cloud cover persistence; watch NWS updates and 12z model runs through April 5 for refined guidance on frontal timing and ridging strength.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$18End Date
Apr 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Dallas's highest temperature on April 7, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverging sharply—some runs projecting mid-60s°F amid lingering effects from the recent heavy rain system (April 2-4) and potential late frontal passage, while others forecast 78-80°F+ under building high pressure and southerly winds following Easter weekend clearing. This model spread, typical of North Texas spring variability (historical April highs average 76°F), elevates implied probabilities to 50% across cool (61°F or below), warm (78-79°F), and hot (80°F+) bins. Key differentiators include jet stream positioning and cloud cover persistence; watch NWS updates and 12z model runs through April 5 for refined guidance on frontal timing and ridging strength.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$18End Date
Apr 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Dallas's highest temperature on April 7, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles diverging sharply—some runs projecting mid-60s°F amid lingering effects from the recent heavy rain system (April 2-4) and potential late frontal passage, while others forecast 78-80°F+ under building high pressure and southerly winds following Easter weekend clearing. This model spread, typical of North Texas spring variability (historical April highs average 76°F), elevates implied probabilities to 50% across cool (61°F or below), warm (78-79°F), and hot (80°F+) bins. Key differentiators include jet stream positioning and cloud cover persistence; watch NWS updates and 12z model runs through April 5 for refined guidance on frontal timing and ridging strength.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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