Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 15°C leading at 37.5% implied probability followed closely by 14°C (24.5%) and 16°C (23.5%), reflects the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecast projecting Ankara's maximum temperature on April 5 at 16°C, peaking midday under partly cloudy conditions with lows near 5°C. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models similarly cluster outcomes in the mid-teens, driven by persistent cool continental air masses typical of early spring in central Anatolia, where historical April highs average 16–17°C. Recent overnight model runs have tightened this range, limiting upside from cloud cover and isolated showers, though diurnal warming potential adds modest uncertainty. Updated MGM bulletins and new ensemble data expected by evening could further shift odds before resolution based on Esenboğa Airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on April 5?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 5?
15°C 38%
14°C 24%
16°C 24%
17°C or higher 11.8%
$33,698 Vol.
$33,698 Vol.
Apr 5, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
4%
14°C
24%
15°C
38%
16°C
24%
17°C or higher
12%
15°C 38%
14°C 24%
16°C 24%
17°C or higher 11.8%
$33,698 Vol.
$33,698 Vol.
Apr 5, 2026
7°C or below
$2,441 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$2,902 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$2,799 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,288 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,504 Vol.
1%
12°C
$3,149 Vol.
2%
13°C
$5,881 Vol.
4%
14°C
$3,502 Vol.
24%
15°C
$3,086 Vol.
38%
16°C
$2,702 Vol.
24%
17°C or higher
$4,444 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 15°C leading at 37.5% implied probability followed closely by 14°C (24.5%) and 16°C (23.5%), reflects the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecast projecting Ankara's maximum temperature on April 5 at 16°C, peaking midday under partly cloudy conditions with lows near 5°C. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models similarly cluster outcomes in the mid-teens, driven by persistent cool continental air masses typical of early spring in central Anatolia, where historical April highs average 16–17°C. Recent overnight model runs have tightened this range, limiting upside from cloud cover and isolated showers, though diurnal warming potential adds modest uncertainty. Updated MGM bulletins and new ensemble data expected by evening could further shift odds before resolution based on Esenboğa Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$33,698End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 15°C leading at 37.5% implied probability followed closely by 14°C (24.5%) and 16°C (23.5%), reflects the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecast projecting Ankara's maximum temperature on April 5 at 16°C, peaking midday under partly cloudy conditions with lows near 5°C. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models similarly cluster outcomes in the mid-teens, driven by persistent cool continental air masses typical of early spring in central Anatolia, where historical April highs average 16–17°C. Recent overnight model runs have tightened this range, limiting upside from cloud cover and isolated showers, though diurnal warming potential adds modest uncertainty. Updated MGM bulletins and new ensemble data expected by evening could further shift odds before resolution based on Esenboğa Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$33,698End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 15°C leading at 37.5% implied probability followed closely by 14°C (24.5%) and 16°C (23.5%), reflects the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) forecast projecting Ankara's maximum temperature on April 5 at 16°C, peaking midday under partly cloudy conditions with lows near 5°C. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models similarly cluster outcomes in the mid-teens, driven by persistent cool continental air masses typical of early spring in central Anatolia, where historical April highs average 16–17°C. Recent overnight model runs have tightened this range, limiting upside from cloud cover and isolated showers, though diurnal warming potential adds modest uncertainty. Updated MGM bulletins and new ensemble data expected by evening could further shift odds before resolution based on Esenboğa Airport observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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