Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 33–35°C (31.5–23.0%) for Lucknow's highest temperature on April 5, reflecting IMD extended-range forecasts indicating near-normal maximums of 32–36°C across Uttar Pradesh's central plains amid partly cloudy skies and elevated rainfall chances from recent March surpluses (+498% weekly departure). This caps pre-monsoon heating below early-April climatological averages of 36–38°C at Amausi Airport station, with global models like GFS and ECMWF showing 1–2°C spreads driven by cloud cover variability, soil moisture retention, and light southerly winds. Key differentiators include thundery development potential versus persistent haze; monitor daily IMD city bulletins and model refreshes for shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on April 5?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on April 5?
33°C or below 38%
34°C 30%
35°C 28%
36°C 9%
33°C or below
38%
34°C
30%
35°C
22%
36°C
13%
37°C
6%
38°C
6%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
1%
33°C or below 38%
34°C 30%
35°C 28%
36°C 9%
33°C or below
38%
34°C
30%
35°C
22%
36°C
13%
37°C
6%
38°C
6%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 33–35°C (31.5–23.0%) for Lucknow's highest temperature on April 5, reflecting IMD extended-range forecasts indicating near-normal maximums of 32–36°C across Uttar Pradesh's central plains amid partly cloudy skies and elevated rainfall chances from recent March surpluses (+498% weekly departure). This caps pre-monsoon heating below early-April climatological averages of 36–38°C at Amausi Airport station, with global models like GFS and ECMWF showing 1–2°C spreads driven by cloud cover variability, soil moisture retention, and light southerly winds. Key differentiators include thundery development potential versus persistent haze; monitor daily IMD city bulletins and model refreshes for shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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