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Highest temperature in Toronto on April 1?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Toronto on April 1?

Mar 30

Mar 31

Apr 1

Apr 2

Mar 30

Mar 31

Apr 1

Apr 2

14°C or higher 41%

13°C 20%

12°C 16%

10°C 14%

Polymarket
NEW

14°C or higher 41%

13°C 20%

12°C 16%

10°C 14%

Polymarket
NEW

4°C or below

$588 Vol.

1%

5°C

$238 Vol.

4%

6°C

$145 Vol.

2%

7°C

$216 Vol.

4%

8°C

$201 Vol.

4%

9°C

$162 Vol.

8%

10°C

$147 Vol.

14%

11°C

$174 Vol.

11%

12°C

$222 Vol.

16%

13°C

$122 Vol.

20%

14°C or higher

$678 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Environment Canada forecasts and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project a mild, rainy pattern for Toronto on April 1, with high temperatures likely in the 12–14°C range—well above the early-April climatological normal of about 8°C—driving trader consensus toward 14°C or higher at 39.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from a developing upper-level ridge fostering southerly warm air advection following March's record-breaking warmth and spring teaser spells with double-digit highs. However, spring variability persists, with risks of cooler air if a frontal boundary stalls nearby, as seen in recent model spread. Watch for twice-daily updates from the Canadian Meteorological Centre, which could refine landfall timing of any showers and peak heat potential before resolution.

Recent Environment Canada forecasts and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project a mild, rainy pattern for Toronto on April 1, with high temperatures likely in the 12–14°C range—well above the early-April climatological normal of about 8°C—driving trader consensus toward 14°C or higher at 39.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from a developing upper-level ridge fostering southerly warm air advection following March's record-breaking warmth and spring teaser spells with double-digit highs. However, spring variability persists, with risks of cooler air if a frontal boundary stalls nearby, as seen in recent model spread. Watch for twice-daily updates from the Canadian Meteorological Centre, which could refine landfall timing of any showers and peak heat potential before resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Environment Canada forecasts and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project a mild, rainy pattern for Toronto on April 1, with high temperatures likely in the 12–14°C range—well above the early-April climatological normal of about 8°C—driving trader consensus toward 14°C or higher at 39.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from a developing upper-level ridge fostering southerly warm air advection following March's record-breaking warmth and spring teaser spells with double-digit highs. However, spring variability persists, with risks of cooler air if a frontal boundary stalls nearby, as seen in recent model spread. Watch for twice-daily updates from the Canadian Meteorological Centre, which could refine landfall timing of any showers and peak heat potential before resolution.

Recent Environment Canada forecasts and global model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS project a mild, rainy pattern for Toronto on April 1, with high temperatures likely in the 12–14°C range—well above the early-April climatological normal of about 8°C—driving trader consensus toward 14°C or higher at 39.5% implied probability. This positioning stems from a developing upper-level ridge fostering southerly warm air advection following March's record-breaking warmth and spring teaser spells with double-digit highs. However, spring variability persists, with risks of cooler air if a frontal boundary stalls nearby, as seen in recent model spread. Watch for twice-daily updates from the Canadian Meteorological Centre, which could refine landfall timing of any showers and peak heat potential before resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Toronto on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "14°C or higher" at 41%, followed by "13°C" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Toronto on April 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Toronto on April 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Toronto on April 1?" is "14°C or higher" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "13°C" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Toronto on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.