Market icon

Highest temperature in London on April 1?

Market icon

Highest temperature in London on April 1?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

15°C 37%

14°C 24%

13°C 23%

12°C 10.2%

Polymarket
NEW

15°C 37%

14°C 24%

13°C 23%

12°C 10.2%

Polymarket
NEW

11°C or below

$1,308 Vol.

7%

12°C

$1,547 Vol.

10%

13°C

$979 Vol.

23%

14°C

$930 Vol.

24%

15°C

$810 Vol.

37%

16°C

$977 Vol.

6%

17°C

$624 Vol.

3%

18°C

$607 Vol.

<1%

19°C

$567 Vol.

<1%

20°C

$661 Vol.

<1%

21°C or higher

$698 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15°C (31%) over 14°C (26.5%) and 13°C (21.5%) for London's highest temperature on April 1, mirroring the latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting a maximum around 14-15°C amid overcast skies, light winds, and possible drizzle from lingering Atlantic fronts. This tight clustering reflects genuine uncertainty in ensemble model outputs from ECMWF, GFS, and UKMO, where differences in predicted cloud cover—potentially allowing brief hazy sunshine—could differentiate outcomes by 1-2°C, as solar heating strongly influences boundary layer temperatures. Early April climatology at Heathrow Airport (the likely resolution station) averages 13°C highs, with current neutral North Atlantic Oscillation patterns supporting mild but variable conditions; fresh 12z model runs expected March 30-31 will likely sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15°C (31%) over 14°C (26.5%) and 13°C (21.5%) for London's highest temperature on April 1, mirroring the latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting a maximum around 14-15°C amid overcast skies, light winds, and possible drizzle from lingering Atlantic fronts. This tight clustering reflects genuine uncertainty in ensemble model outputs from ECMWF, GFS, and UKMO, where differences in predicted cloud cover—potentially allowing brief hazy sunshine—could differentiate outcomes by 1-2°C, as solar heating strongly influences boundary layer temperatures. Early April climatology at Heathrow Airport (the likely resolution station) averages 13°C highs, with current neutral North Atlantic Oscillation patterns supporting mild but variable conditions; fresh 12z model runs expected March 30-31 will likely sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15°C (31%) over 14°C (26.5%) and 13°C (21.5%) for London's highest temperature on April 1, mirroring the latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting a maximum around 14-15°C amid overcast skies, light winds, and possible drizzle from lingering Atlantic fronts. This tight clustering reflects genuine uncertainty in ensemble model outputs from ECMWF, GFS, and UKMO, where differences in predicted cloud cover—potentially allowing brief hazy sunshine—could differentiate outcomes by 1-2°C, as solar heating strongly influences boundary layer temperatures. Early April climatology at Heathrow Airport (the likely resolution station) averages 13°C highs, with current neutral North Atlantic Oscillation patterns supporting mild but variable conditions; fresh 12z model runs expected March 30-31 will likely sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15°C (31%) over 14°C (26.5%) and 13°C (21.5%) for London's highest temperature on April 1, mirroring the latest Met Office and BBC Weather forecasts projecting a maximum around 14-15°C amid overcast skies, light winds, and possible drizzle from lingering Atlantic fronts. This tight clustering reflects genuine uncertainty in ensemble model outputs from ECMWF, GFS, and UKMO, where differences in predicted cloud cover—potentially allowing brief hazy sunshine—could differentiate outcomes by 1-2°C, as solar heating strongly influences boundary layer temperatures. Early April climatology at Heathrow Airport (the likely resolution station) averages 13°C highs, with current neutral North Atlantic Oscillation patterns supporting mild but variable conditions; fresh 12z model runs expected March 30-31 will likely sharpen probabilities ahead of resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in London on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "15°C" at 37%, followed by "14°C" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in London on April 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in London on April 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in London on April 1?" is "15°C" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "14°C" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in London on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.