Market icon

Highest temperature in Seattle on April 1?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Seattle on April 1?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

48-49°F 39%

50-51°F 31%

46-47°F 15%

52-53°F 12.0%

Polymarket
NEW

48-49°F 39%

50-51°F 31%

46-47°F 15%

52-53°F 12.0%

Polymarket
NEW

43°F or below

$1,607 Vol.

1%

44-45°F

$658 Vol.

8%

46-47°F

$343 Vol.

15%

48-49°F

$609 Vol.

39%

50-51°F

$483 Vol.

31%

52-53°F

$313 Vol.

19%

54-55°F

$382 Vol.

7%

56-57°F

$687 Vol.

1%

58-59°F

$1,527 Vol.

1%

60-61°F

$574 Vol.

1%

62°F or higher

$507 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 50-51°F (28.5%) and 48-49°F (26.0%) for Seattle's highest temperature on April 1, reflecting National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs near 49°F amid a cool northwest flow regime following March's record heat dome. Persistent marine stratus clouds and light northerly winds are capping daytime heating below the early April climatological average of 56°F, with partial clearing potentially differentiating outcomes—thicker low clouds favor 48-49°F, while earlier diurnal mixing supports 50-51°F. Key uncertainties include boundary layer evolution and exact timing of any shower activity; watch Seattle NWS forecast updates and new 00Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 50-51°F (28.5%) and 48-49°F (26.0%) for Seattle's highest temperature on April 1, reflecting National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs near 49°F amid a cool northwest flow regime following March's record heat dome. Persistent marine stratus clouds and light northerly winds are capping daytime heating below the early April climatological average of 56°F, with partial clearing potentially differentiating outcomes—thicker low clouds favor 48-49°F, while earlier diurnal mixing supports 50-51°F. Key uncertainties include boundary layer evolution and exact timing of any shower activity; watch Seattle NWS forecast updates and new 00Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 50-51°F (28.5%) and 48-49°F (26.0%) for Seattle's highest temperature on April 1, reflecting National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs near 49°F amid a cool northwest flow regime following March's record heat dome. Persistent marine stratus clouds and light northerly winds are capping daytime heating below the early April climatological average of 56°F, with partial clearing potentially differentiating outcomes—thicker low clouds favor 48-49°F, while earlier diurnal mixing supports 50-51°F. Key uncertainties include boundary layer evolution and exact timing of any shower activity; watch Seattle NWS forecast updates and new 00Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 50-51°F (28.5%) and 48-49°F (26.0%) for Seattle's highest temperature on April 1, reflecting National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting highs near 49°F amid a cool northwest flow regime following March's record heat dome. Persistent marine stratus clouds and light northerly winds are capping daytime heating below the early April climatological average of 56°F, with partial clearing potentially differentiating outcomes—thicker low clouds favor 48-49°F, while earlier diurnal mixing supports 50-51°F. Key uncertainties include boundary layer evolution and exact timing of any shower activity; watch Seattle NWS forecast updates and new 00Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Seattle on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "48-49°F" at 39%, followed by "50-51°F" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Seattle on April 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Seattle on April 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Seattle on April 1?" is "48-49°F" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50-51°F" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Seattle on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.