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Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?

Mar 29

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Mar 29

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

52°F or higher 42%

48-49°F 16%

42-43°F 12%

44-45°F 11%

Polymarket
NEW

52°F or higher 42%

48-49°F 16%

42-43°F 12%

44-45°F 11%

Polymarket
NEW

33°F or below

$553 Vol.

<1%

34-35°F

$446 Vol.

1%

36-37°F

$449 Vol.

1%

38-39°F

$196 Vol.

9%

40-41°F

$119 Vol.

9%

42-43°F

$116 Vol.

10%

44-45°F

$98 Vol.

11%

46-47°F

$105 Vol.

16%

48-49°F

$148 Vol.

16%

50-51°F

$132 Vol.

9%

52°F or higher

$363 Vol.

42%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects GFS and ECMWF ensemble model runs centering the high temperature at Chicago O'Hare around 44-51°F for April 1, aligning closely with the climatological normal of 53°F, positioning 52°F or higher (40%) and 46-47°F (28%) as leading outcomes amid inherent spring forecast uncertainty. Recent mild March conditions, including highs in the 60s, record warmth early in the month, and active storm systems like the March 25 severe thunderstorms and March 15-16 Midwest storm, have reinforced expectations for above-normal temperatures per NOAA's Central Region Climate Outlook favoring warmer-than-average April conditions. Traders anticipate potential intensification from southerly flows, with NWS updates and new model cycles through March 31 likely to sharpen probabilities before resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects GFS and ECMWF ensemble model runs centering the high temperature at Chicago O'Hare around 44-51°F for April 1, aligning closely with the climatological normal of 53°F, positioning 52°F or higher (40%) and 46-47°F (28%) as leading outcomes amid inherent spring forecast uncertainty. Recent mild March conditions, including highs in the 60s, record warmth early in the month, and active storm systems like the March 25 severe thunderstorms and March 15-16 Midwest storm, have reinforced expectations for above-normal temperatures per NOAA's Central Region Climate Outlook favoring warmer-than-average April conditions. Traders anticipate potential intensification from southerly flows, with NWS updates and new model cycles through March 31 likely to sharpen probabilities before resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects GFS and ECMWF ensemble model runs centering the high temperature at Chicago O'Hare around 44-51°F for April 1, aligning closely with the climatological normal of 53°F, positioning 52°F or higher (40%) and 46-47°F (28%) as leading outcomes amid inherent spring forecast uncertainty. Recent mild March conditions, including highs in the 60s, record warmth early in the month, and active storm systems like the March 25 severe thunderstorms and March 15-16 Midwest storm, have reinforced expectations for above-normal temperatures per NOAA's Central Region Climate Outlook favoring warmer-than-average April conditions. Traders anticipate potential intensification from southerly flows, with NWS updates and new model cycles through March 31 likely to sharpen probabilities before resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects GFS and ECMWF ensemble model runs centering the high temperature at Chicago O'Hare around 44-51°F for April 1, aligning closely with the climatological normal of 53°F, positioning 52°F or higher (40%) and 46-47°F (28%) as leading outcomes amid inherent spring forecast uncertainty. Recent mild March conditions, including highs in the 60s, record warmth early in the month, and active storm systems like the March 25 severe thunderstorms and March 15-16 Midwest storm, have reinforced expectations for above-normal temperatures per NOAA's Central Region Climate Outlook favoring warmer-than-average April conditions. Traders anticipate potential intensification from southerly flows, with NWS updates and new model cycles through March 31 likely to sharpen probabilities before resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "52°F or higher" at 42%, followed by "46-47°F" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?" is "52°F or higher" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "46-47°F" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.