How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
1 56%
0 24%
2 10.0%
3 5.0%
$254,978 Vol.
$254,978 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$93,653 Vol.
24%
0
$93,653 Vol.
24%
1
$133,950 Vol.
56%
1
$133,950 Vol.
56%
2
$10,177 Vol.
10%
2
$10,177 Vol.
10%
3
$3,654 Vol.
5%
3
$3,654 Vol.
5%
4
$8,737 Vol.
4%
4
$8,737 Vol.
4%
5+
$4,808 Vol.
2%
5+
$4,808 Vol.
2%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Created At: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$254,978End Date
Mar 31, 2027Created At
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
1 56%
0 24%
2 10.0%
3 5.0%
$254,978 Vol.
$254,978 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$93,653 Vol.
24%
1
$133,950 Vol.
56%
2
$10,177 Vol.
10%
3
$3,654 Vol.
5%
4
$8,737 Vol.
4%
5+
$4,808 Vol.
2%
About
Volume
$254,978End Date
Mar 31, 2027Created At
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.