NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and global telescope networks have identified and tracked over 30,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), with no known asteroids or comets on a collision course with Earth in 2026 capable of releasing 1 megaton of TNT-equivalent energy—an airburst scale comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor but far smaller than extinction-level events. Sentry impact monitoring tables show zero credible threats for that year, reflecting comprehensive orbital surveys that detect nearly all objects over 140 meters (potentially >1 megaton) years in advance. Trader consensus at 97.7% "No" aligns with this scientific certainty, bolstered by missions like DART demonstrating deflection feasibility. Realistic shifts could stem from an undiscovered small NEO (<50 meters) evading detection, though probabilities remain below 1% given Vera C. Rubin Observatory enhancements starting 2025; next risk assessments due quarterly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$93,263 Vol.
$93,263 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$93,263 Vol.
$93,263 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and global telescope networks have identified and tracked over 30,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), with no known asteroids or comets on a collision course with Earth in 2026 capable of releasing 1 megaton of TNT-equivalent energy—an airburst scale comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor but far smaller than extinction-level events. Sentry impact monitoring tables show zero credible threats for that year, reflecting comprehensive orbital surveys that detect nearly all objects over 140 meters (potentially >1 megaton) years in advance. Trader consensus at 97.7% "No" aligns with this scientific certainty, bolstered by missions like DART demonstrating deflection feasibility. Realistic shifts could stem from an undiscovered small NEO (<50 meters) evading detection, though probabilities remain below 1% given Vera C. Rubin Observatory enhancements starting 2025; next risk assessments due quarterly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$93,263End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and global telescope networks have identified and tracked over 30,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), with no known asteroids or comets on a collision course with Earth in 2026 capable of releasing 1 megaton of TNT-equivalent energy—an airburst scale comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor but far smaller than extinction-level events. Sentry impact monitoring tables show zero credible threats for that year, reflecting comprehensive orbital surveys that detect nearly all objects over 140 meters (potentially >1 megaton) years in advance. Trader consensus at 97.7% "No" aligns with this scientific certainty, bolstered by missions like DART demonstrating deflection feasibility. Realistic shifts could stem from an undiscovered small NEO (<50 meters) evading detection, though probabilities remain below 1% given Vera C. Rubin Observatory enhancements starting 2025; next risk assessments due quarterly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$93,263End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and global telescope networks have identified and tracked over 30,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), with no known asteroids or comets on a collision course with Earth in 2026 capable of releasing 1 megaton of TNT-equivalent energy—an airburst scale comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor but far smaller than extinction-level events. Sentry impact monitoring tables show zero credible threats for that year, reflecting comprehensive orbital surveys that detect nearly all objects over 140 meters (potentially >1 megaton) years in advance. Trader consensus at 97.7% "No" aligns with this scientific certainty, bolstered by missions like DART demonstrating deflection feasibility. Realistic shifts could stem from an undiscovered small NEO (<50 meters) evading detection, though probabilities remain below 1% given Vera C. Rubin Observatory enhancements starting 2025; next risk assessments due quarterly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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