NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system monitors potential asteroid impacts out to 2100, showing zero objects on trajectory for Earth collision in 2026 with energy release at or above 1 megaton TNT equivalent—roughly a 40-meter stony meteor. This near-complete inventory of hazardous near-Earth objects (NEOs), bolstered by surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS, underpins the 97.7% market-implied probability for No, reflecting trader consensus on rarity: such impacts occur about once every few thousand years historically. While tiny uncertainties persist for undiscovered small, fast-moving objects, no recent alerts or discoveries have emerged. Ongoing infrared scans by NEOWISE and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's 2025 start further solidify confidence ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$93,263 Vol.
$93,263 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$93,263 Vol.
$93,263 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system monitors potential asteroid impacts out to 2100, showing zero objects on trajectory for Earth collision in 2026 with energy release at or above 1 megaton TNT equivalent—roughly a 40-meter stony meteor. This near-complete inventory of hazardous near-Earth objects (NEOs), bolstered by surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS, underpins the 97.7% market-implied probability for No, reflecting trader consensus on rarity: such impacts occur about once every few thousand years historically. While tiny uncertainties persist for undiscovered small, fast-moving objects, no recent alerts or discoveries have emerged. Ongoing infrared scans by NEOWISE and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's 2025 start further solidify confidence ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$93,263End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system monitors potential asteroid impacts out to 2100, showing zero objects on trajectory for Earth collision in 2026 with energy release at or above 1 megaton TNT equivalent—roughly a 40-meter stony meteor. This near-complete inventory of hazardous near-Earth objects (NEOs), bolstered by surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS, underpins the 97.7% market-implied probability for No, reflecting trader consensus on rarity: such impacts occur about once every few thousand years historically. While tiny uncertainties persist for undiscovered small, fast-moving objects, no recent alerts or discoveries have emerged. Ongoing infrared scans by NEOWISE and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's 2025 start further solidify confidence ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$93,263End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system monitors potential asteroid impacts out to 2100, showing zero objects on trajectory for Earth collision in 2026 with energy release at or above 1 megaton TNT equivalent—roughly a 40-meter stony meteor. This near-complete inventory of hazardous near-Earth objects (NEOs), bolstered by surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS, underpins the 97.7% market-implied probability for No, reflecting trader consensus on rarity: such impacts occur about once every few thousand years historically. While tiny uncertainties persist for undiscovered small, fast-moving objects, no recent alerts or discoveries have emerged. Ongoing infrared scans by NEOWISE and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's 2025 start further solidify confidence ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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