NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system and ESA risk lists show no tracked objects capable of a ≥100-kiloton airburst or impact in 2026, with all catalogued near-Earth asteroids posing negligible collision odds this year. Historical bolide data from the JPL Fireball repository indicate events at this energy scale occur roughly once per several decades, translating to low single-year odds. Ongoing optical and radar surveys have detected only far smaller fireballs in 2026, none approaching the threshold. With roughly ten weeks remaining, the combination of comprehensive monitoring and statistical rarity underpins the 96.4% market-implied probability of no qualifying strike. An undetected 10–30 meter object on a late-year trajectory remains the main residual uncertainty, though surveys make such a surprise increasingly unlikely.