Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre shows no catalogued asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton atmospheric energy release in 2026, underpinning the market’s 96.2% “No” consensus. Risk lists contain objects with non-zero but minuscule impact probabilities years or decades ahead, while historical bolide records indicate events of this scale occur roughly once every two decades on average. Ongoing optical and radar surveys continue to rule out known threats well in advance. A realistic scenario that could still shift odds involves the late detection of a previously unobserved 20–50 meter object with a short observation arc, though improving survey completeness and the narrow remaining timeframe make this outcome statistically remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Feb 28, 2027
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre shows no catalogued asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton atmospheric energy release in 2026, underpinning the market’s 96.2% “No” consensus. Risk lists contain objects with non-zero but minuscule impact probabilities years or decades ahead, while historical bolide records indicate events of this scale occur roughly once every two decades on average. Ongoing optical and radar surveys continue to rule out known threats well in advance. A realistic scenario that could still shift odds involves the late detection of a previously unobserved 20–50 meter object with a short observation arc, though improving survey completeness and the narrow remaining timeframe make this outcome statistically remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,956End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre shows no catalogued asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton atmospheric energy release in 2026, underpinning the market’s 96.2% “No” consensus. Risk lists contain objects with non-zero but minuscule impact probabilities years or decades ahead, while historical bolide records indicate events of this scale occur roughly once every two decades on average. Ongoing optical and radar surveys continue to rule out known threats well in advance. A realistic scenario that could still shift odds involves the late detection of a previously unobserved 20–50 meter object with a short observation arc, though improving survey completeness and the narrow remaining timeframe make this outcome statistically remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre shows no catalogued asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton atmospheric energy release in 2026, underpinning the market’s 96.2% “No” consensus. Risk lists contain objects with non-zero but minuscule impact probabilities years or decades ahead, while historical bolide records indicate events of this scale occur roughly once every two decades on average. Ongoing optical and radar surveys continue to rule out known threats well in advance. A realistic scenario that could still shift odds involves the late detection of a previously unobserved 20–50 meter object with a short observation arc, though improving survey completeness and the narrow remaining timeframe make this outcome statistically remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions