NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) with any impact probability for 2026, driving the market's strong 93.4% implied probability for "No" on a 100-kiloton meteor airburst or strike. Historical bolide data from government sensors indicate such events—equivalent to a ~12-15 meter stony meteor exploding in the atmosphere—occur roughly once per decade to half-century, with the last major case (Chelyabinsk, ~500 kt) in 2013. Recent safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD on April 9 at 156,000 miles, and record NEO discoveries exceeding 11,000 reinforce this consensus, despite a Q1 fireball surge involving smaller <1 kt events. Undetected small bolides remain the primary uncertainty, with ongoing CNEOS infrasound and satellite monitoring providing real-time updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) with any impact probability for 2026, driving the market's strong 93.4% implied probability for "No" on a 100-kiloton meteor airburst or strike. Historical bolide data from government sensors indicate such events—equivalent to a ~12-15 meter stony meteor exploding in the atmosphere—occur roughly once per decade to half-century, with the last major case (Chelyabinsk, ~500 kt) in 2013. Recent safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD on April 9 at 156,000 miles, and record NEO discoveries exceeding 11,000 reinforce this consensus, despite a Q1 fireball surge involving smaller <1 kt events. Undetected small bolides remain the primary uncertainty, with ongoing CNEOS infrasound and satellite monitoring providing real-time updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$7,136End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) with any impact probability for 2026, driving the market's strong 93.4% implied probability for "No" on a 100-kiloton meteor airburst or strike. Historical bolide data from government sensors indicate such events—equivalent to a ~12-15 meter stony meteor exploding in the atmosphere—occur roughly once per decade to half-century, with the last major case (Chelyabinsk, ~500 kt) in 2013. Recent safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD on April 9 at 156,000 miles, and record NEO discoveries exceeding 11,000 reinforce this consensus, despite a Q1 fireball surge involving smaller <1 kt events. Undetected small bolides remain the primary uncertainty, with ongoing CNEOS infrasound and satellite monitoring providing real-time updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$7,136End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system lists no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) with any impact probability for 2026, driving the market's strong 93.4% implied probability for "No" on a 100-kiloton meteor airburst or strike. Historical bolide data from government sensors indicate such events—equivalent to a ~12-15 meter stony meteor exploding in the atmosphere—occur roughly once per decade to half-century, with the last major case (Chelyabinsk, ~500 kt) in 2013. Recent safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD on April 9 at 156,000 miles, and record NEO discoveries exceeding 11,000 reinforce this consensus, despite a Q1 fireball surge involving smaller <1 kt events. Undetected small bolides remain the primary uncertainty, with ongoing CNEOS infrasound and satellite monitoring providing real-time updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions