NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system report no catalogued asteroids on collision courses capable of 100-kiloton atmospheric impacts during 2026, underpinning the 96% market-implied probability of “No.” Historical bolide records from the JPL Fireball repository show only two qualifying events since 1988, establishing a low annual base rate well below 5%. Recent close approaches involve small or distant objects, with no model runs indicating elevated risk. The primary remaining uncertainty stems from undetected sub-20-meter impactors that evade surveys until hours before arrival, though the narrow remaining timeframe and expanding observational coverage make such an event improbable before year-end.