No detected near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 100-kiloton airburst remain on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry risk table and ESA monitoring, driving the 96.2% market-implied probability for “No.” Objects capable of releasing 100 kt or more typically measure around 20 meters across, akin to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, and occur at a low historical rate of roughly one every 10–20 years. Comprehensive surveys have identified no qualifying threats, while smaller fireballs such as the meter-scale 2026 RW1 impact released negligible energy. With only weeks left and ongoing optical and radar observations, an undetected impactor would require a rare gap in coverage of potentially hazardous asteroids.