No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s CNEOS or ESA monitoring systems carry trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, supporting the market’s roughly 79.5% implied probability for “No.” Small bolides at this energy scale—comparable to modest conventional explosives but far below the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—occur irregularly every few years based on historical fireball records and orbital surveys. Ongoing Sentry and Scout assessments show only distant safe approaches, while recent close passes by meter-scale objects have not altered the low hazard outlook. Traders weigh residual uncertainty from the undetected population against the absence of confirmed events through October and the limited remaining window.