No known catalogued near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories with Earth in 2026, according to NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA assessments. Meter-scale impactors capable of releasing this energy occur roughly once per year on average, yet recent confirmed events such as 2026 JN4 and 2026 RW1 involved sub-2 m bodies yielding far lower yields. Continuous sky surveys have identified only small, non-threatening close approaches this year, with no objects on the risk list posing meaningful 2026 impact probability. Trader consensus at 22% implied probability for “Yes” reflects this absence of specific threats alongside the inherent uncertainty in undiscovered small NEOs.