Ongoing NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies monitoring and the American Meteor Society fireball database show no bolides reaching 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent energy through mid-May 2026, despite a Q1 surge in reported events that still peaked at just 0.25 kt. Small asteroids capable of producing such yields remain difficult to detect until atmospheric entry, with historical global rates averaging only 0.2–0.5 impacts per year. Trader sentiment at 63% for “No” reflects this low baseline frequency and the absence of any Sentry-tracked objects with meaningful collision probabilities for the remainder of the year, though undetected near-Earth objects could still produce an unexpected strike before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies monitoring and the American Meteor Society fireball database show no bolides reaching 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent energy through mid-May 2026, despite a Q1 surge in reported events that still peaked at just 0.25 kt. Small asteroids capable of producing such yields remain difficult to detect until atmospheric entry, with historical global rates averaging only 0.2–0.5 impacts per year. Trader sentiment at 63% for “No” reflects this low baseline frequency and the absence of any Sentry-tracked objects with meaningful collision probabilities for the remainder of the year, though undetected near-Earth objects could still produce an unexpected strike before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$300,653End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies monitoring and the American Meteor Society fireball database show no bolides reaching 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent energy through mid-May 2026, despite a Q1 surge in reported events that still peaked at just 0.25 kt. Small asteroids capable of producing such yields remain difficult to detect until atmospheric entry, with historical global rates averaging only 0.2–0.5 impacts per year. Trader sentiment at 63% for “No” reflects this low baseline frequency and the absence of any Sentry-tracked objects with meaningful collision probabilities for the remainder of the year, though undetected near-Earth objects could still produce an unexpected strike before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$300,653End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies monitoring and the American Meteor Society fireball database show no bolides reaching 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent energy through mid-May 2026, despite a Q1 surge in reported events that still peaked at just 0.25 kt. Small asteroids capable of producing such yields remain difficult to detect until atmospheric entry, with historical global rates averaging only 0.2–0.5 impacts per year. Trader sentiment at 63% for “No” reflects this low baseline frequency and the absence of any Sentry-tracked objects with meaningful collision probabilities for the remainder of the year, though undetected near-Earth objects could still produce an unexpected strike before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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