No qualifying 5 kt or greater bolide has been recorded in the first nine months of 2026 according to NASA JPL CNEOS fireball data and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” at 75%. Historical rates indicate roughly 0.7 such events per year on average, but the absence of any airburst meeting the energy threshold so far—coupled with only meter-scale objects like 2026 RW1 producing far smaller yields—has shifted trader consensus. Ongoing surveys show no known near-Earth asteroids on collision trajectories capable of reaching 5 kt this year, with all recent close approaches involving objects under 50 m that either miss Earth or disintegrate harmlessly. Remaining uncertainty centers on undetected small impactors in the final quarter and any late-year model updates from CNEOS.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
21% chance
$314,157 Vol.
$314,157 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
21% chance
$314,157 Vol.
$314,157 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No qualifying 5 kt or greater bolide has been recorded in the first nine months of 2026 according to NASA JPL CNEOS fireball data and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” at 75%. Historical rates indicate roughly 0.7 such events per year on average, but the absence of any airburst meeting the energy threshold so far—coupled with only meter-scale objects like 2026 RW1 producing far smaller yields—has shifted trader consensus. Ongoing surveys show no known near-Earth asteroids on collision trajectories capable of reaching 5 kt this year, with all recent close approaches involving objects under 50 m that either miss Earth or disintegrate harmlessly. Remaining uncertainty centers on undetected small impactors in the final quarter and any late-year model updates from CNEOS.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,157End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No qualifying 5 kt or greater bolide has been recorded in the first nine months of 2026 according to NASA JPL CNEOS fireball data and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” at 75%. Historical rates indicate roughly 0.7 such events per year on average, but the absence of any airburst meeting the energy threshold so far—coupled with only meter-scale objects like 2026 RW1 producing far smaller yields—has shifted trader consensus. Ongoing surveys show no known near-Earth asteroids on collision trajectories capable of reaching 5 kt this year, with all recent close approaches involving objects under 50 m that either miss Earth or disintegrate harmlessly. Remaining uncertainty centers on undetected small impactors in the final quarter and any late-year model updates from CNEOS.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$314,157End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No qualifying 5 kt or greater bolide has been recorded in the first nine months of 2026 according to NASA JPL CNEOS fireball data and ESA monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” at 75%. Historical rates indicate roughly 0.7 such events per year on average, but the absence of any airburst meeting the energy threshold so far—coupled with only meter-scale objects like 2026 RW1 producing far smaller yields—has shifted trader consensus. Ongoing surveys show no known near-Earth asteroids on collision trajectories capable of reaching 5 kt this year, with all recent close approaches involving objects under 50 m that either miss Earth or disintegrate harmlessly. Remaining uncertainty centers on undetected small impactors in the final quarter and any late-year model updates from CNEOS.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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