**No at 79% reflects the absence of any qualifying bolide through late September 2026 plus limited time remaining.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies fireball repository and ESA monitoring show only sub-kiloton events so far this year, including the May 30 Cape Cod Bay airburst and smaller confirmed impacts such as 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, none approaching the 5 kt TNT threshold. Historical detection rates from CTBTO and CNEOS data indicate multi-kiloton airbursts occur infrequently—typically several times per decade—making any single calendar year’s baseline probability modest. With three months left, no cataloged near-Earth objects on Sentry or Scout lists pose a 2026 risk at this energy scale, and refined orbits have lowered residual uncertainty. Traders therefore price the remaining window as unlikely to produce a qualifying natural meteoroid airburst before resolution on December 31.