**No at 77% reflects the absence of any confirmed ≥5 kt bolide through late September 2026 and the low likelihood of an undetected event in the remaining months.** NASA CNEOS fireball records and Sentry impact monitoring show only small predicted atmospheric entries this year, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 objects, both far below the energy threshold. No known near-Earth asteroids carry non-zero impact probabilities for 2026, and routine close-approach tracking confirms all current candidates are safe flybys. Historical data indicate roughly one 5 kt event per year on average, yet many occur over oceans or are missed; with three-quarters of the year elapsed without detection and improving survey coverage, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent a late-year surprise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
23% chance
$314,170 Vol.
$314,170 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
23% chance
$314,170 Vol.
$314,170 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 77% reflects the absence of any confirmed ≥5 kt bolide through late September 2026 and the low likelihood of an undetected event in the remaining months.** NASA CNEOS fireball records and Sentry impact monitoring show only small predicted atmospheric entries this year, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 objects, both far below the energy threshold. No known near-Earth asteroids carry non-zero impact probabilities for 2026, and routine close-approach tracking confirms all current candidates are safe flybys. Historical data indicate roughly one 5 kt event per year on average, yet many occur over oceans or are missed; with three-quarters of the year elapsed without detection and improving survey coverage, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent a late-year surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,170End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 77% reflects the absence of any confirmed ≥5 kt bolide through late September 2026 and the low likelihood of an undetected event in the remaining months.** NASA CNEOS fireball records and Sentry impact monitoring show only small predicted atmospheric entries this year, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 objects, both far below the energy threshold. No known near-Earth asteroids carry non-zero impact probabilities for 2026, and routine close-approach tracking confirms all current candidates are safe flybys. Historical data indicate roughly one 5 kt event per year on average, yet many occur over oceans or are missed; with three-quarters of the year elapsed without detection and improving survey coverage, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent a late-year surprise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...**No at 77% reflects the absence of any confirmed ≥5 kt bolide through late September 2026 and the low likelihood of an undetected event in the remaining months.** NASA CNEOS fireball records and Sentry impact monitoring show only small predicted atmospheric entries this year, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 objects, both far below the energy threshold. No known near-Earth asteroids carry non-zero impact probabilities for 2026, and routine close-approach tracking confirms all current candidates are safe flybys. Historical data indicate roughly one 5 kt event per year on average, yet many occur over oceans or are missed; with three-quarters of the year elapsed without detection and improving survey coverage, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent a late-year surprise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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