**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77% reflects the low statistical likelihood of a ≥5 kt bolide in any single year, reinforced by ongoing NASA JPL and ESA monitoring showing only small, low-energy impacts through September 2026.** Recent detections, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 (sub-2 m objects producing negligible energy), align with the pattern of frequent tiny meteoroids but no objects approaching Chelyabinsk-scale (roughly 20 m, hundreds of kt). No known near-Earth asteroids on collision trajectories carry sufficient size or velocity to reach the 5 kt threshold, and cumulative impact probabilities for monitored objects remain far below background risk on Palermo and Torino scales. With three months remaining, refined orbits and expanded surveys continue to reduce uncertainty without elevating odds. Historical rates suggest such events occur roughly once per decade or longer, supporting the current market-implied odds absent new large detections.