No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst remain on collision trajectories for the rest of 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring systems. Catalogued NEOs show only distant, safe approaches through year-end, while recent small impacts such as 2026 RW1 released negligible energy. Historical bolide records from CTBTO and JPL data indicate 5 kt-scale events occur irregularly, often years apart, and none have met the threshold in 2026 so far. With three months remaining and continuous Sentry/Scout updates revealing no new risks, trader consensus favors No at 77.5% implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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