**No at 80% reflects the low baseline rate of 5 kt-scale airbursts and the absence of qualifying events through late September 2026.** NASA CNEOS fireball data and infrasound records indicate objects producing ≥5 kt TNT-equivalent airbursts recur roughly every 30–40 years on average, consistent with flux models showing a few ≥1 kt events annually but far fewer at the 5 kt threshold. No bolides meeting the energy criterion have been confirmed in 2026, and continuous NEO monitoring by CNEOS and ESA has identified no known objects on trajectories capable of delivering that yield. While undetected small meteoroids remain possible and atmospheric entry models carry uncertainty, the lack of detections to date and the short remaining window strongly support the current market-implied odds.