**No at 82.5% reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories for 2026 and the lack of a qualifying bolide event through early October.** NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring confirm all recent close approaches, including multiple sub-50-meter objects this month, are safe misses with no objects large enough for a 5 kt airburst on impact paths. Historical data from the JPL Fireball repository and studies such as Peter Brown’s indicate meter-scale impactors release ~5 kt roughly once per year on average, yet many occur over oceans or remote regions and fall below detection thresholds in any given calendar year. With only three months remaining and no confirmed ≥5 kt event to date, trader consensus has shifted toward “No” as the remaining window narrows. Ongoing Sentry and Aegis risk-list updates continue to show negligible near-term impact probability.