No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst remain on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Recent small bolides detected by the JPL Fireball repository, including 2026 JN4 and 2026 RW1, released far less energy and resolved harmlessly over oceans or remote areas. Historical records indicate meter-scale impactors capable of 5 kt events occur roughly once per year on average, yet none have registered so far this year. With most of the calendar elapsed and no new threats identified, trader consensus strongly favors resolution to “No,” though final confirmation awaits complete 2026 infrasound and satellite data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
23% chance
$314,170 Vol.
$314,170 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
23% chance
$314,170 Vol.
$314,170 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst remain on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Recent small bolides detected by the JPL Fireball repository, including 2026 JN4 and 2026 RW1, released far less energy and resolved harmlessly over oceans or remote areas. Historical records indicate meter-scale impactors capable of 5 kt events occur roughly once per year on average, yet none have registered so far this year. With most of the calendar elapsed and no new threats identified, trader consensus strongly favors resolution to “No,” though final confirmation awaits complete 2026 infrasound and satellite data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,170End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst remain on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Recent small bolides detected by the JPL Fireball repository, including 2026 JN4 and 2026 RW1, released far less energy and resolved harmlessly over oceans or remote areas. Historical records indicate meter-scale impactors capable of 5 kt events occur roughly once per year on average, yet none have registered so far this year. With most of the calendar elapsed and no new threats identified, trader consensus strongly favors resolution to “No,” though final confirmation awaits complete 2026 infrasound and satellite data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst remain on collision trajectories for the remainder of 2026, according to ongoing NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring. Recent small bolides detected by the JPL Fireball repository, including 2026 JN4 and 2026 RW1, released far less energy and resolved harmlessly over oceans or remote areas. Historical records indicate meter-scale impactors capable of 5 kt events occur roughly once per year on average, yet none have registered so far this year. With most of the calendar elapsed and no new threats identified, trader consensus strongly favors resolution to “No,” though final confirmation awaits complete 2026 infrasound and satellite data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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