No at 77% reflects extensive NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects, which has identified no asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of a 5 kt atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026. Sentry risk lists and CNEOS fireball records show only sub-kiloton events so far this year, consistent with the rarity of objects in the 5–10 m size range producing that energy yield. While small impactors can evade detection until hours before entry, current orbital catalogs and absence of elevated activity in ongoing surveys keep the implied probability for a qualifying strike low. New LSST observations beginning later this year may refine future rates but will not alter near-term 2026 resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
23% chance
$314,170 Vol.
$314,170 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
23% chance
$314,170 Vol.
$314,170 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 77% reflects extensive NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects, which has identified no asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of a 5 kt atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026. Sentry risk lists and CNEOS fireball records show only sub-kiloton events so far this year, consistent with the rarity of objects in the 5–10 m size range producing that energy yield. While small impactors can evade detection until hours before entry, current orbital catalogs and absence of elevated activity in ongoing surveys keep the implied probability for a qualifying strike low. New LSST observations beginning later this year may refine future rates but will not alter near-term 2026 resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,170End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 77% reflects extensive NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects, which has identified no asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of a 5 kt atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026. Sentry risk lists and CNEOS fireball records show only sub-kiloton events so far this year, consistent with the rarity of objects in the 5–10 m size range producing that energy yield. While small impactors can evade detection until hours before entry, current orbital catalogs and absence of elevated activity in ongoing surveys keep the implied probability for a qualifying strike low. New LSST observations beginning later this year may refine future rates but will not alter near-term 2026 resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...No at 77% reflects extensive NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects, which has identified no asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of a 5 kt atmospheric impact in the remaining months of 2026. Sentry risk lists and CNEOS fireball records show only sub-kiloton events so far this year, consistent with the rarity of objects in the 5–10 m size range producing that energy yield. While small impactors can evade detection until hours before entry, current orbital catalogs and absence of elevated activity in ongoing surveys keep the implied probability for a qualifying strike low. New LSST observations beginning later this year may refine future rates but will not alter near-term 2026 resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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