No confirmed 5kt-scale bolide has occurred in 2026 through September, supporting the market's 76% implied probability for "No." NASA JPL fireball monitoring and ESA close-approach data show only sub-kiloton airbursts and small meteorite falls this year, aligning with historical rates of roughly one such event every 1–2 years globally. Continuous Sentry and Scout scans have identified no near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of delivering 5kt TNT-equivalent energy before year-end, while recent detections like 2026 RW1 and other meter-scale objects burned up well below threshold. Traders weigh these verified observations and the shrinking calendar window against the low but nonzero chance of an undetected impact in the final quarter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
24% chance
$314,169 Vol.
$314,169 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
24% chance
$314,169 Vol.
$314,169 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No confirmed 5kt-scale bolide has occurred in 2026 through September, supporting the market's 76% implied probability for "No." NASA JPL fireball monitoring and ESA close-approach data show only sub-kiloton airbursts and small meteorite falls this year, aligning with historical rates of roughly one such event every 1–2 years globally. Continuous Sentry and Scout scans have identified no near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of delivering 5kt TNT-equivalent energy before year-end, while recent detections like 2026 RW1 and other meter-scale objects burned up well below threshold. Traders weigh these verified observations and the shrinking calendar window against the low but nonzero chance of an undetected impact in the final quarter.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,169End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No confirmed 5kt-scale bolide has occurred in 2026 through September, supporting the market's 76% implied probability for "No." NASA JPL fireball monitoring and ESA close-approach data show only sub-kiloton airbursts and small meteorite falls this year, aligning with historical rates of roughly one such event every 1–2 years globally. Continuous Sentry and Scout scans have identified no near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of delivering 5kt TNT-equivalent energy before year-end, while recent detections like 2026 RW1 and other meter-scale objects burned up well below threshold. Traders weigh these verified observations and the shrinking calendar window against the low but nonzero chance of an undetected impact in the final quarter.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...No confirmed 5kt-scale bolide has occurred in 2026 through September, supporting the market's 76% implied probability for "No." NASA JPL fireball monitoring and ESA close-approach data show only sub-kiloton airbursts and small meteorite falls this year, aligning with historical rates of roughly one such event every 1–2 years globally. Continuous Sentry and Scout scans have identified no near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of delivering 5kt TNT-equivalent energy before year-end, while recent detections like 2026 RW1 and other meter-scale objects burned up well below threshold. Traders weigh these verified observations and the shrinking calendar window against the low but nonzero chance of an undetected impact in the final quarter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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