NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data shows no bolides releasing ≥5 kilotons TNT equivalent in Earth's atmosphere through late March 2026, despite a surge in bright fireball sightings across North America—such as the vivid daytime event over the northeast U.S. and Canada on March 17— all registering below 0.5 kt per U.S. sensor calculations. This absence in the first quarter bolsters trader consensus pricing "No" at 60.5% implied probability, aligning with peer-reviewed estimates (e.g., satellite analyses) of roughly one such event annually from small, untracked meteoroids 2–4 meters across. The Sentry impact monitoring lists no credible threats for 2026, with minuscule risks from tiny objects like (2013 TP4). Ongoing CNEOS updates and meteor shower peaks through year-end could shift odds amid inherent detection gaps over oceans.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$276,280 Vol.
$276,280 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$276,280 Vol.
$276,280 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data shows no bolides releasing ≥5 kilotons TNT equivalent in Earth's atmosphere through late March 2026, despite a surge in bright fireball sightings across North America—such as the vivid daytime event over the northeast U.S. and Canada on March 17— all registering below 0.5 kt per U.S. sensor calculations. This absence in the first quarter bolsters trader consensus pricing "No" at 60.5% implied probability, aligning with peer-reviewed estimates (e.g., satellite analyses) of roughly one such event annually from small, untracked meteoroids 2–4 meters across. The Sentry impact monitoring lists no credible threats for 2026, with minuscule risks from tiny objects like (2013 TP4). Ongoing CNEOS updates and meteor shower peaks through year-end could shift odds amid inherent detection gaps over oceans.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$276,280End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data shows no bolides releasing ≥5 kilotons TNT equivalent in Earth's atmosphere through late March 2026, despite a surge in bright fireball sightings across North America—such as the vivid daytime event over the northeast U.S. and Canada on March 17— all registering below 0.5 kt per U.S. sensor calculations. This absence in the first quarter bolsters trader consensus pricing "No" at 60.5% implied probability, aligning with peer-reviewed estimates (e.g., satellite analyses) of roughly one such event annually from small, untracked meteoroids 2–4 meters across. The Sentry impact monitoring lists no credible threats for 2026, with minuscule risks from tiny objects like (2013 TP4). Ongoing CNEOS updates and meteor shower peaks through year-end could shift odds amid inherent detection gaps over oceans.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$276,280End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data shows no bolides releasing ≥5 kilotons TNT equivalent in Earth's atmosphere through late March 2026, despite a surge in bright fireball sightings across North America—such as the vivid daytime event over the northeast U.S. and Canada on March 17— all registering below 0.5 kt per U.S. sensor calculations. This absence in the first quarter bolsters trader consensus pricing "No" at 60.5% implied probability, aligning with peer-reviewed estimates (e.g., satellite analyses) of roughly one such event annually from small, untracked meteoroids 2–4 meters across. The Sentry impact monitoring lists no credible threats for 2026, with minuscule risks from tiny objects like (2013 TP4). Ongoing CNEOS updates and meteor shower peaks through year-end could shift odds amid inherent detection gaps over oceans.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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