Recent NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies monitoring shows no cataloged near-Earth objects with impact probabilities high enough to deliver a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent strike this year, consistent with historical fireball records indicating such events occur globally only 0.2–0.5 times annually, frequently as undetected airbursts. Small bolides recorded so far in 2026, including a 0.25 kt event in March, remain well below threshold, while ongoing infrasound and satellite networks continue to track late-year developments without alerts. Key upcoming factors include continued model updates from the CNEOS Sentry system and any new fireball detections that could alter trader consensus on whether atmospheric or surface impacts meet the 5 kt criterion by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$300,703 Vol.
$300,703 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$300,703 Vol.
$300,703 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Recent NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies monitoring shows no cataloged near-Earth objects with impact probabilities high enough to deliver a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent strike this year, consistent with historical fireball records indicating such events occur globally only 0.2–0.5 times annually, frequently as undetected airbursts. Small bolides recorded so far in 2026, including a 0.25 kt event in March, remain well below threshold, while ongoing infrasound and satellite networks continue to track late-year developments without alerts. Key upcoming factors include continued model updates from the CNEOS Sentry system and any new fireball detections that could alter trader consensus on whether atmospheric or surface impacts meet the 5 kt criterion by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$300,703End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Recent NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies monitoring shows no cataloged near-Earth objects with impact probabilities high enough to deliver a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent strike this year, consistent with historical fireball records indicating such events occur globally only 0.2–0.5 times annually, frequently as undetected airbursts. Small bolides recorded so far in 2026, including a 0.25 kt event in March, remain well below threshold, while ongoing infrasound and satellite networks continue to track late-year developments without alerts. Key upcoming factors include continued model updates from the CNEOS Sentry system and any new fireball detections that could alter trader consensus on whether atmospheric or surface impacts meet the 5 kt criterion by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$300,703End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies monitoring shows no cataloged near-Earth objects with impact probabilities high enough to deliver a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent strike this year, consistent with historical fireball records indicating such events occur globally only 0.2–0.5 times annually, frequently as undetected airbursts. Small bolides recorded so far in 2026, including a 0.25 kt event in March, remain well below threshold, while ongoing infrasound and satellite networks continue to track late-year developments without alerts. Key upcoming factors include continued model updates from the CNEOS Sentry system and any new fireball detections that could alter trader consensus on whether atmospheric or surface impacts meet the 5 kt criterion by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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