**No at 76% reflects robust NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring showing no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst through year-end.** Recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and JN4, involved sub-2 m objects releasing only tens of tons TNT equivalent—well below the 5 kt threshold resolved via the JPL Fireball repository. Ongoing close approaches tracked in September 2026 remain small and non-impacting, consistent with historical bolide frequencies of roughly 0.5–0.7 events per year. With three months remaining and no upward revisions to impact risk from Sentry or equivalent systems, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent an undetected meter-scale impactor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
24% chance
$314,170 Vol.
$314,170 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
24% chance
$314,170 Vol.
$314,170 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 76% reflects robust NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring showing no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst through year-end.**
Recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and JN4, involved sub-2 m objects releasing only tens of tons TNT equivalent—well below the 5 kt threshold resolved via the JPL Fireball repository. Ongoing close approaches tracked in September 2026 remain small and non-impacting, consistent with historical bolide frequencies of roughly 0.5–0.7 events per year. With three months remaining and no upward revisions to impact risk from Sentry or equivalent systems, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent an undetected meter-scale impactor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,170End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 76% reflects robust NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring showing no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst through year-end.**
Recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and JN4, involved sub-2 m objects releasing only tens of tons TNT equivalent—well below the 5 kt threshold resolved via the JPL Fireball repository. Ongoing close approaches tracked in September 2026 remain small and non-impacting, consistent with historical bolide frequencies of roughly 0.5–0.7 events per year. With three months remaining and no upward revisions to impact risk from Sentry or equivalent systems, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent an undetected meter-scale impactor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...**No at 76% reflects robust NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring showing no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst through year-end.** Recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and JN4, involved sub-2 m objects releasing only tens of tons TNT equivalent—well below the 5 kt threshold resolved via the JPL Fireball repository. Ongoing close approaches tracked in September 2026 remain small and non-impacting, consistent with historical bolide frequencies of roughly 0.5–0.7 events per year. With three months remaining and no upward revisions to impact risk from Sentry or equivalent systems, trader consensus favors resolution to No absent an undetected meter-scale impactor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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