No known near-Earth objects carry a meaningful risk of delivering a 5-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact in 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry monitoring and the European Space Agency risk list. Continuous cataloging of thousands of objects shows all 2026 close approaches remain distant safe passes, with recent discoveries such as 2026 JH2 passing more than 50,000 miles away. Small bolides occur sporadically, yet the energy threshold aligns with events observed only a few times per decade historically, and no new detections or orbital updates have shifted that baseline. Traders therefore assign roughly 70 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any identified threat amid comprehensive planetary-defense surveillance.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$305,880 Vol.
$305,880 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$305,880 Vol.
$305,880 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects carry a meaningful risk of delivering a 5-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact in 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry monitoring and the European Space Agency risk list. Continuous cataloging of thousands of objects shows all 2026 close approaches remain distant safe passes, with recent discoveries such as 2026 JH2 passing more than 50,000 miles away. Small bolides occur sporadically, yet the energy threshold aligns with events observed only a few times per decade historically, and no new detections or orbital updates have shifted that baseline. Traders therefore assign roughly 70 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any identified threat amid comprehensive planetary-defense surveillance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$305,880Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects carry a meaningful risk of delivering a 5-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact in 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry monitoring and the European Space Agency risk list. Continuous cataloging of thousands of objects shows all 2026 close approaches remain distant safe passes, with recent discoveries such as 2026 JH2 passing more than 50,000 miles away. Small bolides occur sporadically, yet the energy threshold aligns with events observed only a few times per decade historically, and no new detections or orbital updates have shifted that baseline. Traders therefore assign roughly 70 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any identified threat amid comprehensive planetary-defense surveillance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$305,880Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects carry a meaningful risk of delivering a 5-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact in 2026, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry monitoring and the European Space Agency risk list. Continuous cataloging of thousands of objects shows all 2026 close approaches remain distant safe passes, with recent discoveries such as 2026 JH2 passing more than 50,000 miles away. Small bolides occur sporadically, yet the energy threshold aligns with events observed only a few times per decade historically, and no new detections or orbital updates have shifted that baseline. Traders therefore assign roughly 70 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any identified threat amid comprehensive planetary-defense surveillance.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong