Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57% implied probability for no 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming no tracked asteroids pose impact risk this year—Sentry system lists only negligible probabilities below 0.004% for tiny objects. Recent American Meteor Society data highlights a Q1 2026 surge in large fireballs, doubling events with 50+ witnesses versus five-year averages, including the March 17 Ohio bolide (0.25 kt) and March 21 Houston event (0.026 kt), both below threshold but signaling possible elevated sporadic meteoroid flux from Anthelion radiants. Baseline rates indicate 5kt+ events occur infrequently globally, tempering odds amid nine months remaining; ongoing CNEOS lightcurve analysis and AMS surveillance will shape further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$275,804 Vol.
$275,804 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$275,804 Vol.
$275,804 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57% implied probability for no 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming no tracked asteroids pose impact risk this year—Sentry system lists only negligible probabilities below 0.004% for tiny objects. Recent American Meteor Society data highlights a Q1 2026 surge in large fireballs, doubling events with 50+ witnesses versus five-year averages, including the March 17 Ohio bolide (0.25 kt) and March 21 Houston event (0.026 kt), both below threshold but signaling possible elevated sporadic meteoroid flux from Anthelion radiants. Baseline rates indicate 5kt+ events occur infrequently globally, tempering odds amid nine months remaining; ongoing CNEOS lightcurve analysis and AMS surveillance will shape further shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$275,804End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57% implied probability for no 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming no tracked asteroids pose impact risk this year—Sentry system lists only negligible probabilities below 0.004% for tiny objects. Recent American Meteor Society data highlights a Q1 2026 surge in large fireballs, doubling events with 50+ witnesses versus five-year averages, including the March 17 Ohio bolide (0.25 kt) and March 21 Houston event (0.026 kt), both below threshold but signaling possible elevated sporadic meteoroid flux from Anthelion radiants. Baseline rates indicate 5kt+ events occur infrequently globally, tempering odds amid nine months remaining; ongoing CNEOS lightcurve analysis and AMS surveillance will shape further shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$275,804End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 57% implied probability for no 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming no tracked asteroids pose impact risk this year—Sentry system lists only negligible probabilities below 0.004% for tiny objects. Recent American Meteor Society data highlights a Q1 2026 surge in large fireballs, doubling events with 50+ witnesses versus five-year averages, including the March 17 Ohio bolide (0.25 kt) and March 21 Houston event (0.026 kt), both below threshold but signaling possible elevated sporadic meteoroid flux from Anthelion radiants. Baseline rates indicate 5kt+ events occur infrequently globally, tempering odds amid nine months remaining; ongoing CNEOS lightcurve analysis and AMS surveillance will shape further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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