The near-certain trader consensus against a hurricane forming by May 31 arises from the Atlantic basin’s climatology, where the official season begins June 1 and May hurricanes have occurred only a handful of times since 1851. National Hurricane Center daily outlooks initiated May 15 confirm no tropical disturbances or waves with development potential through late month, driven by persistent high vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and below-average sea surface temperatures that inhibit organization. NOAA’s seasonal outlook on May 21 is expected to reinforce this suppressed early pattern. While an undetected disturbance could theoretically intensify rapidly in the final days, current model consensus and NHC monitoring show no realistic pathway for a system to reach hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$50,559 Vol.
$50,559 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$50,559 Vol.
$50,559 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The near-certain trader consensus against a hurricane forming by May 31 arises from the Atlantic basin’s climatology, where the official season begins June 1 and May hurricanes have occurred only a handful of times since 1851. National Hurricane Center daily outlooks initiated May 15 confirm no tropical disturbances or waves with development potential through late month, driven by persistent high vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and below-average sea surface temperatures that inhibit organization. NOAA’s seasonal outlook on May 21 is expected to reinforce this suppressed early pattern. While an undetected disturbance could theoretically intensify rapidly in the final days, current model consensus and NHC monitoring show no realistic pathway for a system to reach hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$50,559End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The near-certain trader consensus against a hurricane forming by May 31 arises from the Atlantic basin’s climatology, where the official season begins June 1 and May hurricanes have occurred only a handful of times since 1851. National Hurricane Center daily outlooks initiated May 15 confirm no tropical disturbances or waves with development potential through late month, driven by persistent high vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and below-average sea surface temperatures that inhibit organization. NOAA’s seasonal outlook on May 21 is expected to reinforce this suppressed early pattern. While an undetected disturbance could theoretically intensify rapidly in the final days, current model consensus and NHC monitoring show no realistic pathway for a system to reach hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$50,559End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus against a hurricane forming by May 31 arises from the Atlantic basin’s climatology, where the official season begins June 1 and May hurricanes have occurred only a handful of times since 1851. National Hurricane Center daily outlooks initiated May 15 confirm no tropical disturbances or waves with development potential through late month, driven by persistent high vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and below-average sea surface temperatures that inhibit organization. NOAA’s seasonal outlook on May 21 is expected to reinforce this suppressed early pattern. While an undetected disturbance could theoretically intensify rapidly in the final days, current model consensus and NHC monitoring show no realistic pathway for a system to reach hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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