Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the extreme historical rarity of May hurricanes—only four documented since the late 1800s per NOAA records—and current National Hurricane Center assessments showing no tropical cyclones active as of May 8. The first tropical wave of 2026 emerged off Africa but stalled amid dry Saharan air and unfavorable wind shear, with an emerging El Niño (61% chance by summer per NOAA CPC) poised to further suppress activity through increased upper-level winds. Sea surface temperatures remain below peak levels needed for rapid intensification. Realistic shifts would require anomalous SST warming and high-pressure breakdown in the next three weeks, though NHC outlooks resume May 15 and NOAA's seasonal forecast arrives May 21, offering key updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$48,309 Vol.
$48,309 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$48,309 Vol.
$48,309 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the extreme historical rarity of May hurricanes—only four documented since the late 1800s per NOAA records—and current National Hurricane Center assessments showing no tropical cyclones active as of May 8. The first tropical wave of 2026 emerged off Africa but stalled amid dry Saharan air and unfavorable wind shear, with an emerging El Niño (61% chance by summer per NOAA CPC) poised to further suppress activity through increased upper-level winds. Sea surface temperatures remain below peak levels needed for rapid intensification. Realistic shifts would require anomalous SST warming and high-pressure breakdown in the next three weeks, though NHC outlooks resume May 15 and NOAA's seasonal forecast arrives May 21, offering key updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$48,309End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the extreme historical rarity of May hurricanes—only four documented since the late 1800s per NOAA records—and current National Hurricane Center assessments showing no tropical cyclones active as of May 8. The first tropical wave of 2026 emerged off Africa but stalled amid dry Saharan air and unfavorable wind shear, with an emerging El Niño (61% chance by summer per NOAA CPC) poised to further suppress activity through increased upper-level winds. Sea surface temperatures remain below peak levels needed for rapid intensification. Realistic shifts would require anomalous SST warming and high-pressure breakdown in the next three weeks, though NHC outlooks resume May 15 and NOAA's seasonal forecast arrives May 21, offering key updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$48,309End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the extreme historical rarity of May hurricanes—only four documented since the late 1800s per NOAA records—and current National Hurricane Center assessments showing no tropical cyclones active as of May 8. The first tropical wave of 2026 emerged off Africa but stalled amid dry Saharan air and unfavorable wind shear, with an emerging El Niño (61% chance by summer per NOAA CPC) poised to further suppress activity through increased upper-level winds. Sea surface temperatures remain below peak levels needed for rapid intensification. Realistic shifts would require anomalous SST warming and high-pressure breakdown in the next three weeks, though NHC outlooks resume May 15 and NOAA's seasonal forecast arrives May 21, offering key updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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