Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 84% probability against any Category 5 hurricane striking the US mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events—only four verified instances since 1851 per NOAA records (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, and Michael 2018)—despite favorable conditions for storm formation. The 2024 Atlantic season, which ended last week with an above-normal tally of 18 named storms, produced no Cat 5 US landfall; Beryl briefly reached Cat 5 winds offshore but weakened before nearing the coast, exemplifying common steering patterns that avert direct hits. Record sea surface temperatures and emerging La Niña conditions signal potential for intense 2025-2026 activity per NOAA outlooks, yet rapid intensification to Cat 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale: sustained winds ≥157 mph) near land remains improbable due to shear and track uncertainties. Upcoming April 2025 forecasts from the National Hurricane Center will refine model consensus on landfall risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$107,255 Vol.
$107,255 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$107,255 Vol.
$107,255 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 84% probability against any Category 5 hurricane striking the US mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events—only four verified instances since 1851 per NOAA records (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, and Michael 2018)—despite favorable conditions for storm formation. The 2024 Atlantic season, which ended last week with an above-normal tally of 18 named storms, produced no Cat 5 US landfall; Beryl briefly reached Cat 5 winds offshore but weakened before nearing the coast, exemplifying common steering patterns that avert direct hits. Record sea surface temperatures and emerging La Niña conditions signal potential for intense 2025-2026 activity per NOAA outlooks, yet rapid intensification to Cat 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale: sustained winds ≥157 mph) near land remains improbable due to shear and track uncertainties. Upcoming April 2025 forecasts from the National Hurricane Center will refine model consensus on landfall risks.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$107,255End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 84% probability against any Category 5 hurricane striking the US mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events—only four verified instances since 1851 per NOAA records (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, and Michael 2018)—despite favorable conditions for storm formation. The 2024 Atlantic season, which ended last week with an above-normal tally of 18 named storms, produced no Cat 5 US landfall; Beryl briefly reached Cat 5 winds offshore but weakened before nearing the coast, exemplifying common steering patterns that avert direct hits. Record sea surface temperatures and emerging La Niña conditions signal potential for intense 2025-2026 activity per NOAA outlooks, yet rapid intensification to Cat 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale: sustained winds ≥157 mph) near land remains improbable due to shear and track uncertainties. Upcoming April 2025 forecasts from the National Hurricane Center will refine model consensus on landfall risks.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$107,255End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 84% probability against any Category 5 hurricane striking the US mainland before 2027, driven by the extreme historical rarity of such events—only four verified instances since 1851 per NOAA records (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, and Michael 2018)—despite favorable conditions for storm formation. The 2024 Atlantic season, which ended last week with an above-normal tally of 18 named storms, produced no Cat 5 US landfall; Beryl briefly reached Cat 5 winds offshore but weakened before nearing the coast, exemplifying common steering patterns that avert direct hits. Record sea surface temperatures and emerging La Niña conditions signal potential for intense 2025-2026 activity per NOAA outlooks, yet rapid intensification to Cat 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale: sustained winds ≥157 mph) near land remains improbable due to shear and track uncertainties. Upcoming April 2025 forecasts from the National Hurricane Center will refine model consensus on landfall risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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